Kenneth, What Is the Point Size?
Nick Gillespie | September 10, 2004, 3:27pm
Broadcast news punching bag Dan Rather says what history will no doubt call Cover Your Assgate are "authentic," which might be the surest sign yet that they are fakes. As Drudge likes to say, developing...
Maybe this is Dandy Dan's payback for the tongue-lashing Poppa Bush gave him way back when?
Or maybe it's just a precursor to a flood of "Kenneth, What Is the Point Size?" t-shirts flooding the streets of America.
Either way, it seems we all win.
Morgan | September 10, 2004, 6:17am | #
Let's start with a completely naive (in the statistical sense) assumption that we have no reason to favor computer vs. typewriter as the source of the memos. Since the document matches the computer-generated document essentially perfectly, the relevant question is "how likely is it that this document, if typed in 1972, would exactly match a default MS Word formatted document?"
Probability that the typewriter used proportional spacing exactly as MS Word does? Low (not in common use on typewriters yet).
Probability that the typewriter kerned letters exactly as MS Word does? Very low (not known to have been used on typewriters at the time). Incidentally, the memo font is kerned - it matches the MS Word kerned font, and would not do so unless it were too.)
Probability of perfect centering of multiple lines? Very low (Impossible, really, given the kerning and proportional spacing).
Probability that the typewriter had Times New Roman font? Very, very low (it is not known to have existed as a typewriter font at the time).
There's more, but so far the relative probability that this was typed in 1972 (versus forged on MS Word) is very, very, very, very, low, low, low, low. Do we need to continue? You can substitute your own judgement regarding the probabilities (e.g. .001, .05 etc.) at each point, and multiply to see what you estimate the chances are that this was typed.
The document is a fake, produced on a computer using Times New Roman or a very similar font with kerning and spacing identical to Times New Roman.
***For the statistically literate - yes, I know, the probabilities of each of the previous are probably not completely independent. I think the point stands.
Gary Gunnels | September 10, 2004, 7:00am | #
Dan,
Here is the Swift Boat ad:
John Kerry: “They had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads. . .”
Joe Ponder: “The accusations that John Kerry made against the veterans who served in Vietnam was just devastating.”
[So what? If they are truthful, whether they were "devastating" is beside the point.]
John Kerry: “. . . randomly shot at civilians. . .”
Joe Ponder: “It hurt me more than any physical wounds I had.”
[So what?]
John Kerry: “. . . cut off limbs, blown up bodies. . .”
Ken Cordier: “That was part of the torture, was, uh, to sign a statement that you had committed war crimes.”
[So what?]
John Kerry: “. . . razed villages in a fashion reminiscent of Ghengis Khan. . .”
Paul Gallanti: “John Kerry gave the enemy for free what I, and many of my, uh, comrades in North Vietnam, in the prison camps, uh, took torture to avoid saying. It demoralized us.”
[Again, if these allegations are true, one must ask so what?]
John Kerry: “. . . crimes committed on a day to day basis. . . ”
Ken Cordier: “He betrayed us in the past, how could we be loyal to him now?”
[If his statements were truthful, one must ask again, so what? Is this some sort of play for loyalty to the military no matter what? Note here how badly the military has treated confirmed whistle-blowers.]
John Kerry: “. . . ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam.”
Paul Gallanti: “He dishonored his country, and, uh, more, more importantly the people he served with. He just sold them out.”
[So what? Like all of the above comments by the Swift Boat group, this is mere opinion.]
Announcer : “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth is responsible for the content of this advertisement.”
_____________
Note that the Swift Boaters do not in fact indicate that Kerry is drawing from the remarks of the Winter Soldiers in his statements. Ommitting this fact is dishonest on their part. Why would they omit this fact one might ask?
Furthermore, NONE of their comments actually directly question Kerry's remarks; they merely prattle on about how Kerry betrayed people.
So in the commercial we are presented with remarks by Kerry which are drawn not from his own experiences, but that of OTHER soldiers, but we are not told this; and his remarks are rebutted not by claims that he was wrong, but with emotionally driven personal opinions of the man.
I'll state this again: I am no supporter of Kerry, but this ad is bullshit.
Shannon Love,
And I think you're a cunt. We're even.
akmdave | September 10, 2004, 8:17am | #
SteveM:
"I find it simply fascinating that the Swift Boat people are accepted as truth-tellers, despite all documentary evidence to the contrary, while these memos are immediately labelled as fakes.... Why is the Powerline analysis correct and the Daily Kos wrong?"
In each case, the truth-tellers make numerous, detailed, specific, and falsifiable claims, while the falsehood-tellers avoid the bulk of the claims and resort to
ad hominems in preference to refutation.
There is no way of coming to an independent conclusion except by doing your homework. For example, an ignoramous would listen to Dan Rather tonight and be convinced that because some typewriters could do superscript well before 1970, and because one general says they're convincing, therefore the documents have no problem.
One who has done his homework, in contrast, knows that the superscript is at issue mostly because of its smaller type size, which is not a feature on such typewriters, that Killian's widow, son and personnel aide all say the documents are implausible, and that the documents have numerous typological and language giveaways, including crude attempts to avoid the automatic superscript on Microsoft Word in most of the "th" and "st" examples.
Further, the fact that Dan Rather does not address or refute such issues, but pretends they do not exist, leads the knowledgeable person to conclude that Rather is hiding things because he knows his case is weak.
In the case of the Swiftvets: they make numerous falsifiable claims, they testify to them often, they print them in a book. In contrast, Kerry avoids the press, sends out spokesmen who have no claim of the details, but rather resorts to ad hominems and threats against TV stations.
Paul | September 10, 2004, 8:26am | #
Keeeerist. This thread is generating a lot of comments.
Ok, I'm weighing in on several points. And wading in, too.
Here's the dillyo.
CBS News:
"This report was not based solely on recovered documents, but rather on a preponderance of evidence, including documents that were provided by unimpeachable sources, interviews with former Texas National Guard officials and individuals who worked closely back in the early 1970s with Colonel Jerry Killian and were well acquainted with his procedures, his character and his thinking,"
Ok. Fair enough. What is CBS saying here? They're basically saying "Let's not focus on the documents, it's the larger picture we're concerned with".
My response: Fine. Question Mr. Bush's service. Question the quality of his service. Question whether he got out of Vietnam through deferred svc to the Natl Guard. Use interviews, eyewitnesses, use all that. But by God(tm), if you produce a physical piece of evidence such as a written document, you had better f'ing make sure all the t's are crossed and i's dotted.
I can, for instance, get a piece of company letterhead of almost any major company, print something on it like, oh, "Memo: Make sure all illegal activities are covered up, and stonewall the SEC!!!".
Who gives a shit.
CBS continues:
Critics claim typewriters didn't have that ability in the 1970s. But some models did. In fact, other Bush military records already released by the White House itself show the same superscript – including one from 1968.
Good point. But how were the documents produced? For instance, look at Mr. Bush's pay records. These were PRE-PRINTED forms, not produced on typewriters. They are apt to have all kinds of sophisticated font features, such as kerning, superscript, proportional fonts. But these documents MUST NOT be confused with hand-typed memos.
POint to ponder: It's conceivable that since CBS admits that these were copies of faxes of originals from copies from faxes from originals from copies... then is it possible that there WERE hand typed documents that someone simply transcribed into Word(tm)? I say yes, that's possible. However, to place ORIGINAL signatures on those transcriptions is highly dubious.
CBS Continues:
Document and handwriting examiner Marcel Matley analyzed the documents for CBS News. He says he believes they are real. But he is concerned about exactly what is being examined by some of the people questioning the documents, because deterioration occurs each time a document is reproduced.
Handwriting expert. Uhh, no one is disputing that the signatures aren't those of the people who claim to sign the documents. Those can be scanned from originals and pasted onto any document, meaning that a handwriting expert will only verify that YES, in fact that is Mr. X's signature, because, it is in fact Mr. X's signature.
I personally dispute the 'many generations' theory. Many generations would certainly mask some features, put not entirely produce new features out of whole cloth, or create proportional fonts etc.
Anyone who's done professional work in the computer industry for an excess of fifteen years, and worked extensively with printers is, in my opinion, qualified to make judgement on these documents. those of us who know and have followed the evolution of typographic systems know things like fonts, proportional spacing, kerning, daisy wheel printers, hard copy terminals, the first dot matrix printers, the introduction of the concept of TRUE DECENDERS and lack thereof in some equipment. I could go on.
CBS News very fairly and rightly indicates that there WERE typewriters which produced proportional fonts and superscripting (the superscripting I question to some degree). However, A does not equal B in this case. In 1972 there did exist an automobile called the Ferrari, but this doesn't mean everyone had one. Again, working for a major defense contractor on a military base, using standard military computers, typewriters and equipment ONLY fifteen years ago, I can tell you that it's highly unlikely that the Texas Air National Guard had these specific typewriters in 1972. It's possible, but unlikely.
And going back to the superscripting-- one could superscript with an IBM selectric but it involved moving the platen up a half line and typing a lower case 'th', for one example. However, the font size was the same font size and type as the rest of the document.
the point is here, is this has decended into a Bush Vs. Kerry issue, when I believe that these documents can be held in a vacuum, and up to scrutiny, and in my opinion, they don't stand up to that scrutiny.
And pointing out that there did in fact exist a typewriter which did some of the features pointed out in these documents does not mean that one was used to produce these documents.
My original question remains the same: Produce a set of 'KNOWN ORIGINAL' documents from the SAME typing pool that supposedly produced these, and if they're the same, then that will lend great credibility to these documents. But until that happens, I believe these documents to be fakes, and incredibly poor ones at that.
Paul