Where's the Social Democratic Boom in Europe?
It's not entirely accurate to argue that Europe is, broadly speaking, "trending right" (in the same way that Latin America has drifted left in recent years). And it's a conversation that should be generally avoided, for it is often mired in definitional debates of just what counts as "center-right." But it is nevertheless interesting to observe that while some political commenters search for Scandinavian solutions to the current economic crisis, many voters across Europe—which, in recent years, has seen slight roll backs in generous welfare and labor policies—are ignoring their native social democratic parties. There exist many ruling center-right governments across the pond—France, Denmark, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, and Sweden, for instance—and a few, like Nicolas Sarkozy and the recently ousted Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, are being challanged by stong opposition socialist parties. And many of the right-leaning, populist, and Christian-flavored parties listed below are supporters of their respective welfare states, though with varying degrees of enthusiasm. What is interesting, though, is that in the thick of a global financial crisis many European voters are not migrating to parties of the left.
For instance:
Britain*: Despite an ever-so slight recent uptick in support for the Labour, according to this YouGov poll, David Cameron's Conservatives (41 percent) are still outpacing Prime Minister Gordon Brown's party (34 percent) by a significant margin. Cameron is no Margaret Thatcher on economic issues, of course, but his policies are significantly better than anything offered by Prime Minister Brown.
Germany: According to this poll by Forsa/Stern, Germans are generally satisfied with the center-right government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which has called for limiting executive pay and greater regulation of the financial sector, while rejecting calls for further economic stimulus packages. The opposition SPD (Social Democrats) haven't gained much ground during the crisis (hovering around 25 percent), while Merkel's CDU is steadily polling at 34 percent. The free market FDP (Free Democratic Party), which in 2005 federal elections took under ten percent of the vote, is at an impressive 17 percent and is a likely coalition partner in a CDU/CSU government, provided they win in September.
Sweden: A recent poll by Demoskop/Expressen found the Social Democrats losing a staggering 9 percent of its support (down to 30.9 percent), thus making the nominally right-of-center Moderaterna the country's largest party (35.5 percent). According to another recent poll, the only political figure Swedish voters mistrust more than Social Democrat Party chair Mona Sahlin is Lars Ohly, the self-identified "Leninist" leader of the Left Party.
Hungary: If elections were held today, according to recent polls, Fidesz, a right-wing populist party, would pull an astonishing 62 percent of the electorate, with the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finishing a distant second place, at 23 percent.
Poland: Recent polls show that the right-wing populist/nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS) and the ruling Civic Platform, a generally free-market party of the right, command the loyalty of almost 80 percent of Poles.
The Netherlands: Geert Wilders anti-immigration Freedom Party (PvdV) is, according to the most recent polling data, the most popular party in the country, with the Christian-Democratic Appeal, a right-leaning party that supports the current Dutch welfare state, running a close second.
Finland: The center-right National Coalition Party (Kokoomus, though labeled here, for some reason, the "National Rally Party"), the country's "classical liberal" party of "individual freedom," currently holds a slight lead over the Social Democrats.
Again, there are a host of country-specific reasons—tension over immigration in the Netherlands, a recent pension scandal in Sweden involving the opposition Social Democrats, Labour Party fatigue in England, etc. Regardless, in the midst of the current financial crisis, Europe, so often a vague watchword for state intervention in the economy, has (for the most part) not seen a widespread increase in support for parties of the social democratic left.
* The Spectator's always entertaining blogger Alex Massie, a native of Scotland, emails, scolding me for writing "England" when I meant Britain. It has been changed. And no disrespect intended to our Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish readers.