Staff Vote 4 Dummies (Get it??)
Matt Welch | October 29, 2008, 4:34pm
In my column from four years ago imploring other journalistic outlets to
show us who they're voting for, I boiled down our more expansive
2004 presidential survey into the responses of 13 key
reason contibutors. The breakdown then:
only one certain vote apiece for Bush, Kerry and Badnarik. Two principled non-voters and two more probable non-voters (one of whom leans Badnarik); two I'll-never-tells, two undefined undecideds, and two undecideds who will either vote for Badnarik or a major-party candidate.
I was the sole loser for Kerry, BTW, though it was because "Bush needs to be fired." Go to the
link to see an easily digestible list of how the 13 responded.
For the purposes of symmetry I thought I'd do the same boiling-down exercise from our
just-published 2008 survey. So here goes, with 18 staffers and regular contributors this time around:
Peter Bagge: Barr; Obama if close
Ronald Bailey: Obama
Radley Balko: Barr
Drew Carey: "Anybody but McCain/Palin"
Tim Cavanaugh: Obama
Shikha Dalmia: Nobody
Brian Doherty: Never votes
Nick Gillespie: Barr, if he votes
Katherine Mangu-Ward: Never votes
Michael Moynihan: Won't vote
Charles Oliver: Won't vote
Bob Poole: McCain
Damon Root: Probably nobody, maybe Barr
Jacob Sullum: Barr
Jesse Walker: Barr
David Weigel: Obama
Matt Welch: Probably Barr
Cathy Young: Probably Barr
By my count that's three definitely for Barr, three definitely for Obama, one definitely for McCain. Five won't-votes, four probably-Barrs, one probably-nobody, and one "anybody but McCain/Palin." What does it all mean?
You tell us.
John Thacker | October 29, 2008, 5:39pm | #
It means that libertarians, as much as anyone else, vote on the basis of personality and someone being "like us" and not the hated Other, and only occasionally on the basis of stated policy, rhetoric, and voting history.
For most
Reasonoids, Obama is much more "like us," whereas McCain (from a military family) and Palin are much more the Other. (Also, certainly, is Barr.) Reason writers are no different from anyone that way.
That's all quite reasonable. The argument of "He's smart, he's like me, he listens well, I'm smart and I'm right, so once he hears all the facts he's actually do the right thing and agree with me, no matter what he's been saying" isn't actually the worst possible argument.
Also, it says that
Reason writers are not particularly exercised over issues like
free trade, agricultural subsidies,
health care,
school choice or education in general, or Medicare spending (such as the prescription drug benefit Sen. McCain voted against). Or, again, merely doubt most all of Sen. Obama's voting and campaign rhetoric, and assume that he won't
actually spend what he claims, and what he says about Pakistan and Afghanistan are also lies. (Don't trust me, though, I'm linking to nasty
Cato Institute papers.)
Also, living in DC, perhaps
Reason staffers are very pro-Amtrak spending, pushing them towards Sen. Biden and away from Sen. McCain.
Another possibility is that
Reason writers want to punish Sen. McCain for things that other Republicans did, even when (like on spending, the Medicare drug benefit, ag subsidies) he voted against them and Sen. Obama voted for them.
mccleary | October 29, 2008, 7:43pm | #
Here is my libertarian calculus regarding the most important legislation of the decade and the people to always vote against:
1) HJres 114 (Iraq War authorization). McCain, Barr, Biden (plus also-rans: Clinton, Edwards, Kerry, Dodd, Hagel).
2) Patriot Act (HR 3162). McCain, Barr, Biden (plus also-rans: Clinton, Edwards, Kerry, Dodd, Hagel).
3) Wall Street bailout (PL 110-343): McCain, Obama, Biden.
So McCain is 0-3, Obama is 0-1, Biden is 0-3, Barr is 0-2. So I can easily understand a) the lack of Reason enthusiasm for voting (and I also understand the statistical reasons, but I actually enjoy it!), b) the split barr/obama votes in the "less bad than McCain" category.
I hope that McCain supporters who believe that there is other legislation more important to libertarians will use McCain's voting record (with bill numbers) to tell me why libertarians should even consider him. Typing "Obama is a socialist" doesn't count.
Personally, I'm writing in Ron Paul for Prez (3-3, bitches!).
Otherwise, I plan to vote a fairly straight libertarian ticket in NC (though I'm happily voting for Ron-Paul-Repub BJ Lawson for Congress).