Barr, the LP, and the New Yorker: Checking the Numbers
Brian Doherty | October 22, 2008, 3:25pm
I was less impressed with the New Yorker piece on LP candidate Bob Barr than was David Weigel the other day. Sure, the very fact that a serious profile of an LP candidate is in such an augustly mainstream publication is a good sign for serious attention for the LP, I suppose.
The profile itself, though, managed to be so dull, and so unilluminating about libertarianism or the LP per se though barely successful in giving a pointillist picture-dabbed-through-small-details about Barr himself (it has one of those flat feature-writery finishes that the writer apparently wants the reader to find portentous in some manner but to me just screams "I don't really know what the point of this article is either, just let me sneak quietly out the back") that I don't think it will help even those who manage to finish it understand much they will care about about libertarianism or the LP.
For a more specific critique, the piece makes a huge leap, though, when it implicitly attributes a rise in paid membership to a change in the LP platform, the sort of thing that isn't really fact-checkable per se and something that almost no New Yorker reader will have any independent base of knowledge on which to judge. (It is also written in such a way that the author could deny even having meant to make that implication, though it's hard for me to imagine that most readers wouldn't read it that way):
In 2006, [LP founder David] Nolan told me, the Party had a “civil war” over its platform, most of which was subsequently dropped. The following year, the Party’s dues-paying membership grew by twenty-eight per cent.
My equally un-fact-checkable opinion is that the platform and what it says or doesn't say is only of importance to a very small number of party activists whose self-identity is tied up with it, and for the occasional candidate whose opponents try to call him out on some outre element of it, though I don't think there's even a lot of evidence that happens often, mostly because major party candidates can generally completely ignore their LP opponents.
Still, to be sure, a post-platform reform, post-Barr LP has been on the grow in terms of dues-paying national members, according to the LP's official figures. From December 2007 to now, the party membership has grown by 1,656 members; that's nearly 11 percent.
But how impressive is this? In 2004, the year of unknown Michael Badnarik as their candidate, with a Party burdened with that crazy-radical old platform, the party grew from December 2003 to December 2004 by 2,814 in whole numbers, and by 14 percent, from a much higher base.
For whatever reason, the Party's biggest membership plunge of the past few years happened over the course of 2006, the year which, in July, the Party's platform was shaved in the manner that the New Yorker implicitly credits with the 2007 membership rise. The LP gained 3,313 members in 2007--again, in judging how well the "nominating the successful politician" strategy has done for the LP's prominence so far, note that that is more than twice the number of new members that nominating Barr has earned the LP so far. Yes, the year isn't over yet, and the election hasn't happened yet. But, non-disdainful mainstream media attention or not, I'm not impressed with what Barr has done for the LP so far.
UPDATE: In private correspondence, Shane Cory from the Barr campaign says I'm being misleading about Barr's effect on membership growth by using net numbers rather than gross. With a month-by-month breakdown more specific than the ones the LP national HQ provided me with, he shows that since May (when Barr got the nomination) that new members joining the LP have amounted to at least 3,403.
True. But for every month since May, lapsed members have outnumbered both new members and renewed members--but not the two put together, of course, or there would have been no total growth at all.
I noted in the original post that from December 07 to now, LP membership grew 1,656. With more specific growth figures from May on supplied by Cory, I see that membership since Barr got the nomination in fact grew by a little more than that--1,884. (There was a dip between December 07 and May 08.) While reasonable people can argue about this, I suppose, it seems to me net growth in membership is a far more important measure of Barr's effect on growing the party than merely new members joining. If Barr drew in 10,000 new and lost 13,000 old members, that would not be a positive sign for the LP's future.
robert capozzi | October 22, 2008, 4:55pm | #
Yes, Jesse, expectations were higher for Clark...before Reagan was nominated and before Anderson went independent. Of course, that year was unprecedented, so any expectations were dart-throws to begin with. The LP swelled in numbers after that, until Darth Rothbard struck back in '83.
Assessing the Barr campaign's effectiveness should be tabled until after the election. Yes, his fundraising has been disappointing thus far, but understandable, given the economic downturn and uncertainties.
The late start in the wake of the Paul campaign, NewsletterGate, the delay in announcing whether Paul would come back...all of it...made Barr's entry challenging, I suspect most would agree.
Knapp's statement about mentioning "libertarian" or the LP seems false to me. I've watched most of the major media appearances, and Barr generally mentions the LP, and his vision for a viable 3rd party and a real choice.
I suspect all would stipulate that Barr has gotten many orders of magnitude more major media than all previous standardbearers, possibly more "impressions" than all previous candidates combined. Sure, the man's more sober than electrifying, but I find him profoundly articulate. (And, yes, I sometimes disagree with some of his positions.)
But, like I said, the best assessment is done in December. Perhaps we can learn from the missteps.
Nick Wilson | October 23, 2008, 9:26am | #
As a co-founder of the Libertarian Reform Caucus that led the platform change, even I'm not sure that Barr was the best idea for promoting the libertarian cause, in the same way I'm not sure Paul was. I'm probably going to vote for him as the least of all evils, but I dislike libertarianism getting any more closely tied with the Right than it already is. As I've mentioned on other threads, I want a new and more moderate/left classical liberal party to replace the LP, which is long past its expiration date.
Barr has also demonstrated some fundamental misunderstandings of libertarianism over the course of his campaign (suing Rick Warren for not letting him into a privately organized debate) and also has little record to back up his current message. If Barack Obama came out tomorrow and said, "I changed my mind, now I'm a libertarian!" and makes a few small policy changes to cater to this, we'd all have trouble taking him seriously, too.
We do need to still support candidates like Barr, who don't toe the line 100% because unless we are a big tent, we will never succeed or grow. The LP has acted for too long (since the Rothbardian takeover in '83) like a radical evangelist church where you either accept the faith 100% or you are an apostate. Our reform effort was an attempt to change that. To a degree, we've succeeded. Here's where we should agree: Barr is, of the candidates with a statistical chance to win the presidency, still on the side of liberty when most of the other candidates are on the side of authoritarianism. That's why I probably will vote for him. We have to pick people who will start us in the right direction, because the public are not and will never be ready to accept anarchocapitalism.
We need candidates who gradually start pushing the public in the right direction by promoting first the most popular policies instead of the Great Libertarian Flash, where we intentionally shock non-libertarians with our most radical ideas. Radicals should go form a think-tank if that's their goal. There's little point in making education on radical ideas the primary purpose of a political party, because a political party's goal should be to win elections.
I also think the LP should stop wasting its resources running presidential candidates (and even senatorial and gubernatorial candidates) and instead focus all resources and campaigning on winnable races, like U.S. House of Represenatives, state Senates and mayorships, with qualified and acceptable candidates who aren't ballot stuffers. The presidential campaign is one big joke which the party pours lots of money into and gets poor return on investment. The idea of using the presidential race to promote your party brand is flawed if the candidate hardly gathers 1% of the vote most of the time, which permanently ties the party to electoral failure. Having elected officials who work in legislatures as well as in local offices to influence the system is far more effective promotion and far more attainable.
But I'm still of the notion that the LP will never succeed. Perhaps Barr is de-emphasizing the LP because it's a burden on his chances of getting elected and because independent campaigns have historically done far better than LP campaigns?
PicassoIII | October 23, 2008, 1:51pm | #
TAO wrote:
Serious question for the Barr detractors: what will it take for you to no longer be Barr detractors?
What is the standard?
Isaac wrote:
The problem is that for many of us the LP is more of a litmus test
TAO wrote:
You're right, that is the EXACT problem!
BINGO!!!!!
Can i remind most everyone missing the f-in elephant in the room.
50% of the electorate has no idea who is running besides TweedleDee/Dumb and maybe Nader. By all means tweak our platform in the ‘off season’ but for goodness sake CAPITALIZE on whatever boost we get from ANY press...
The Barr/Paul split is a good thing in that regard, it’s NEWS where the MSM would give more silence, Baldwin’s endorsement is meaningless as big cities/sprawls will probably benefit in the next gerryman......uh, redistricting.
Hell 30% of the population is sitting there (IN the big cities no less) pissed off about smoking bans, and trust me the Greens offer them no solace!
F the litmus test on Barr. He is a political horse, ride his limo shuttled a$$.
If HE isn’t associating himself with the LP enough, that doesn’t stop YOU from claiming him. No one is betting on a POTUS win, but i’ll take even money on one by a congressional candidate in the next 2 cycles. In some state we’ll get a favorable scenario.
His long term effect is unknown, he has one clear advantage, namely name recognition and take or leave porn star mustache, he’s camera friendly at 60 and will remain so for a cycle or two.
Not a litmus BUT a logical analysis:
He DID sunset clause ATA 95 and Patriot 03. Has worked with MPP, ACLU.
"There remains time to turn back the constitutional clock and roll back excessive post-9/11 powers before we turn the corner into another Japanese internment or, closer to our own experiences, before we witness a legally sanctioned Ruby Ridge or Waco scenario."
That’s not yesterday, that’s 5 years old. A year later, this same former GOP Congressman from a very populous state openly endorsed Badnarik the LP candidate for POTUS.
Or would you prefer a ‘purist’ like McKinney.
Whatever is in the water down there IL needs some.
Finally Barr is both great political theater and possibly a genuine conversion. Take his changing positions over a decade as a logical progression of thought. For the moment i could care LESS. I am marking my paper ballot and pushing others to do the same.
Fascist Nation | October 23, 2008, 4:41pm | #
The Libertarian National Committee/ National Libertarian Party has the candidate for president and vice president for whom they have always clamored and manipulated conventions. Barr/ Root. They have everything they want to finally prove their claims of broad coalition, consensus big tent political party here it comes big time big shot relevant wannabes. Republican-Lite.
Well as much as a homophobic GOP CONgressman who was a notorious anti-drug warrior in both the legislature and as a federal prosecutor who prior to that was career CIA assigned to the Americas (and I ain't talking North America) can be Republican-Lite. But hey, he has been a Libertarian for two years now so he has reformed. Gosh, thanks a lot Bob!
So, the money and the membership sign ups will start coming in with this appeal to a broad sector of Amerikana.
Um-huh. How is that working out for you?
Not that it matters to me. To paraphrase Reagan, 'I didn't leave the National Libertarian Party, it left me.'
So now national is bankrupt, ignored and seriously committed to promoting anything establishment that gets it a pat on the head regardless of whether it involves coercive action on unwilling subjects. "We like less taxes, more freedom and smaller government."
Well isn't that just jolly. And I like less testicle crushing, more impeachment and smaller deficits too. How about no coercive government, freedoms without fraud, without force and the absolute respect for people's life, liberty and property? I know it is too much to expect or ask for, but can we just attempt to shoot for it please, rather than conceding force, fraud and theft upfront and then trying to preserve some sliver of liberty?
Unrealistic?!
No problem. It isn't about national. It never was. Power lies in the local and state parties. National has no power and no authority. It just acts as if it does. Bankrupt in money. Bankrupt in principles. Bankrupt in ideas. See ya!
And like Knapp said, I appreciate more and more Mr. Barr leaving all references to libertarian out of his missives. Keep up the good work. Looking forward to your landslide against McCain and Obama in the next few days. Heck, Charlie Manson ought to be able to pull 5% against those two butchers. And whatever your reasons for running will pass unnoticed along with yet the latest opportunity to present libertarianism to the public as an alternative to the Washington Party kleptocracy.
Bill Wood | October 23, 2008, 10:18pm | #
Angela, here is a partial listing of what Wayne has been doing.
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Here are the most recent media appearances, articles, or interviews featuring Wayne Allyn Root:
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WHFS Radio Baltimore, MD
WPXI-TV Pittsburg Cable News Network
Happy Housewives Club Talk Radio Network National
KCLU (NPR) Ventura County, CA
Slate.com
Reno Gazette Journal
WSJS/WSML Radio Greensboro, NC
TheCalifornian.com
"John Oakley Morning Show" CFMJ Toronto, Canada
"The Jerry Doyle Show" National Radio
"Your World with Neil Cavuto" FOX News Channel
"The Jim Bohannon Show" Westwood One National Radio
"The Voicebox" 1700 AM Reno, Nevada
"The Todd Klein Show" KRFE AM Lubbock, Texas
"The Fabian Calvo Show" 1340am Tampa Bay, FL
"The Al Rantel Show" KABC Radio, Los Angeles, CA
KTFA Public Radio Berkeley, CA
FOX NEWS Channel (TV) Neil Cavuto
Pacifica Radio Network National Radio
"The Ian Collins Show" National UK Radio
"The Charles Adler Show" National Canadian Radio
"The Gary Nolan Show" Columbia, Missouri
WNRP Radio Pensacola, FL
"The Lee Elci Show" New London, CT
KURV-AM Radio Rio Grande Valley, Texas
KUIK-AM Hillsboro, Oregon
CFRB Radio "The Richard Syrett Show" Toronto, Canada
WJFN 970 AM Jackson, Mississippi
Fox Business Network National TV
"The Jerry Doyle Show" Talk Radio Network National
U.S. News & World Report National
Wall Street Journal National
American Spectator magazine National
Reason.com
New Republic magazine National
Gambling911.com
"Mancow in the Morning" Nationally Syndicated
"Abdul in the Morning" WXNT Indianapolis, IN
"Barroom Politics" KEPL Estes Park, Colorado
American Free Press
"Your World with Neil Cavuto" Fox News Channel (TV)
WDUN-AM "Morning show w/Bill & Joel" Gainsville, GA
"The John Gambling Show with Rita Cosby" WOR NYNY
"Adler On-Line" Corus Radio Network Canada- Nationally Syndicated
KSLR AM .The Adam McManus Show. San Antonio, TX
WNRP Pensacola, FL
WCCO "The Al Malmberg Show" Minneapolis, MN
WCMA "The Troy eff Show" Toledo, OH
WDUN "The Morning Show with Bill & Joel" Gainsville, GA
WLEA "The Kevin Doran Show" Hornell, NY
talkSPORT Radio "The George Galloway Show" London, England
WPSC 88.7 FM New Jersey
1600 AM Yuba City, CA
The Jerry Doyle Show Talk Radio Network
KTRH Morning News Houston, TX
KAJO-AM Grants Pass, Oregon
The Washington Post
KGAB Radio Cheyenne, Wyoming
WVNJ Radio Teanexck, New Jersey
The Jerry Doyle Show Talk Radio Network National
"Phil the News Junkie" KIRO Seattle, Washington
KGAB Radio Cheyenne, Wyoming
KLFD Radio Minneapolis, Minnesota
The Fred Honsberger Show NBC TV Pittsburg (WPXI TV)
The Pittsburg Cable News Chanel
BBC World News London, England
ABC TV News Salt Lake City, Utah
Park City TV Park City, Utah
Poker Talk America Radio National
WGNS Radio Murfreesboro, TN
The Jewish News Las Vegas, NV
JT Foxx Show Chicago, ILL
The Jewish Exponent Philadelphia, PA
KOMP 92 Morning Show Las Vegas, NV
KDDS AM Radio UC Davis, California
KSOO AM Sioux Falls, South Dakota
"Elisea Frishberg Show" BizRadio Networks
"Shared Sacrifice" Blog Talk Radio
"Bill Sebastion Show" Appleton, WI
"Breakfast Bunch" Ripon, WI
"Liberty Talk" Blog Talk Radio
Fox Sports KDKJ Bismark, North Dakota
WHBY Green Bay, WI
CasinoDirect.com Blog Talk Radio
"Shad Olsen Show" KOTA Rapid City, South Dakota
"The MoneyMan Report" BizRadio Network KTEK Houston, TX
"The Lee Elci Show" WXLM New London, CT
WisPolitics.com
My Success Gateway Podcast
LiveCasinoDirect.com
The Danny Fontana Show" WDYT Charlotte, NC
The Jay Morris Show KZO Kalamazoo, MI
"The Frank Show" KFMA Radio Tucson, AZ & Reno, NV
The Jeff Kropf Show KUIK Radio Portland, Oregon
KBYR Anchorage, Alaska
Woody Woodland Show Nashua, N.H.
KIML AM Gilllette, Wyoming
KWNA Winnemucca, Nevada
WNRP Pensacola, FL
New Republic magazine
The J.T. Foxx Show Chicago, ILL
"The Bob Clark Show" KKOB-AM Albuquerque, New Mexico
"Dialogue with Scott Leffler" 1230 AM Buffalo, NY
"Above Politics" at AboveTopSecret.com
"The Lee Elci Show" WXLM New London, CT.
KGO Morning News KGO 810 AM San Francisco, CA
KUGR AM Green River, Wyoming
Wyoming Public Radio Newcastle, Wyoming
WKBK Keene, New Hampshire
The Weekly Filibuster Show
KXLY Spokane, Washington
Las Vegas Review Journal
The Park Record Park City, Utah
Reason.com (Reason magazine online)
Money Matters Financial Network New York
Ringside Radio Show Louisiana
CNN/Money
Newsweek.com
Fox Business Network
The Charles Goyette Show Phoenix, Arizona
The Brian Wilson Show WHFS Baltimore, MD
Radio America National
KABC The Kevin Wall Show Los Angeles
The Bill Press Show Jones Radio Network National
Additional Media Appearances
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RNN-TV Real Politics Show New York
TIME magazine National
PoliticalGrind.com
Voice of America.com
Fox Business Network
The Bob Grant Show WABC Radio- NY
Voice of America Radio Network Worldwide
The Rick Amato Show 1170 AM KCBQ San Diego
The Mancow Show National
The WGN Morning TV Show Chicago
The Jerry Agar Show WLS Chicago
The Roy Green Show 940 Talk Radio National (Canada)
The Brett Conway Show WHIM Orlando, FL
Fox Business Network
Election Unspun Pacifica Radio National
The Real Estate Expert 630 AM Denver
The Glenn Beck Program Premiere Radio Network
The Mancow Show National
The Ric Federighi Show WIMS Radio Michigan City, Indiana
KXLY, Spokane, Washington- Mike Fitzsimmons Show
NBC TV Las Vegas Morning Show
Follow the Money with Pat Kiley Salem Radio- National
The Brian Wilson Show in Afternoon Drive
1370 AM WSTD, Toledo, Ohio
Liberty Talk Radio
Betting Business (U.K.)
Fox Business Channel (multiple appearances)
Sports Overnight America- National
Park Record Newspaper, Park City, UT
Las Vegas Review Journal, Las Vegas, NV
WikiNews.com
The Gold 101- Salem Radio Network- National
KSGF-AM/FM, Springfield, Missouri
The Drive with Gary Nolan, Columbia, Missouri
Mark Carbonaro, KION, Salinas, CA
Bloomberg TV (Europe)
CNBC Europe
The James Whale Show (London)
Setanta TV (Europe)
The Racing Post (UK)
WTKF/WJNC Morehead City, NC
KNST-Tucson AZ
ESPN 1000 AM Chicago
Outside the Wire Intel Radio Network
Michael Medved Show, Nationwide
Brad Davis Show- WDRC/WSGN Hartford, CT.
J.T. Foxx Show- WLS 890 AM Chicago
J.T. Foxx Show- 97.1 FREE FM Los Angeles
Adam Corrolla Show- 97.1 FREE FM Los Angeles
Sports Overnight America- Sports Byline Network
Sports Overnight America- American Forces Radio
KION Radio-Salinas, CA
Sportsbiz on Business Talk Radio Network
Poker Player Newspaper
TheOnlineWire.com
NBC's "Poker After Dark"
Las Vegas Sun
KNPR-Nevada Public Radio
FreedomWorks Radio, Tampa Florida
LizardMaster.com
ConservativeBlog Talk Radio
The Financial Times May 2007
TheOnlineWire.com May 2007
Fox5News in Las Vegas
Fox News Channel nationally
Las Vegas Review Journal
Worth magazine
Poker News
CardPlayer magazine
ACTION magazine
BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation)
KABC Radio- Los Angeles
KNST Radio- Tucson, Arizona
WPTF Radio- Raleigh, North Carolina
WATR Radio- Waterbury, Connecticut
KOGO Radio- San Diego, CA
Talk Radio Network
Gambling911.com
RawVegas.com
"Face to Face with Jon Ralston" on Las Vegas ONE Cable Network
Time Out Chicago magazine- August 2007
The JT Foxx Show on WIND-AM Chicago
MOLI.com