Maverick is Down!
David Weigel | June 24, 2008, 5:13pm
The
Los Angeles Times is out with its latest presidential poll. Your frontrunner:

The gritty details:
In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.
Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.
In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.
Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.
By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.
Nothing surprising there. More surprising, at first blush:
On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.
The paper doesn't release the exact numbers yet, so I don't know which of the two spoilers polls higher, but that's 4 points they take from McCain and only 1 from Obama. "When Nader and Barr are added to the ballot, they draw most of their support from voters who said they would otherwise vote for the Republican," reports the paper.
Why this doesn't surprise me, the more I think about it: The country desperately wants a Democratic president at the moment. Republicans acknowledge this. The honest ones argue that their best chance at winning is making Obama so weird and treasonous-seeming that swing voters can't pull the lever for him. That strategy, of course, fails to assuage doubts about McCain. As he fails to differentiate himself from the GOP brand, those alienated voters look elsewhere on the ballot.
sv | June 25, 2008, 11:01am | #
giuliani deserves credit for a) hiring and empowering police to increase enforcement b) implementing good ideas from bratton and others such as compstat (which often gets gamed admittedly, but was an improvement and works in tandem with things like successful community policing and rapid response).
in his first term he did a lot to improve the crime situation, which was unbelievably bad before he came in. I lived here as a child in the 80's, it was really a huge fucking warzone where fear ruled the streets and the subways and you simply didn't go out at night. I came back for college in '98 and it was a different world.
It's obvious that didn't get under giuliani, and still don't have, a good relationship between communities and the police, in general. Tough enforcement is important, although I think cops should go easy on minor crimes (instead of the assault in minor weed possession for example, guess who that affects the most), but I believe that effective strategies of community policing like what you guys were talking about earlier would reduce crime still further, and might even help make inroads into other social problems like economic and achievement gaps between races and between rich and poor. As someone who started out poor, I can tell you that it helps a lot when you dont feel like the system is actively against you, that the cops and authorities aren't just out there to screw you over and lock you up and keep you from participating in the economy above a burger-flipping level. In other words perception and respect is important and Giuliani moved us backwards in that regard.
Anyway, even if he did some very good things as mayor, which he did, it doesn't mean we should let him within a mile of the Oval Office. He's an absolute loon and a dickhead to boot on foreign policy. (The ideal 'attack dog' McCain VP candidate in my opinion.)
PS - Fuck Al Sharpton. someone as smart as him could have made a difference, and he deserves some credit for bringing needed attention to police brutality, but he's a demagogue and he pushes the black community backwards.