Do We Owe Future Generations Anything?
Ronald Bailey | March 25, 2008, 10:50am
Over at the environmenatist webzine
Grist ("gloom and doom with a sense of humor"*) Bill Becker
argues:
Intergenerational ethics argue against us leaving massive, intractable problems for future generations, forcing them to deal in perpetuity with nuclear wastes, carbon sequestration sites and geo-engineering systems — all subject to human error and to failures that would be deadly.
Really? Perhaps intergenerational ethics tells us that poor people (us) should not sacrfice their livelihoods, health and welfare for rich people (future generations). Reducing current incomes will certainly be deadly for some people now alive.
Should people making an average of $7000 per year be forced to lower their incomes in order to boost the incomes of future generations that some scenarios project will have incomes in 2100 over $107,000 per capita in developed countries and over $66,000 in developing countries? Also keep in mind that not only will future generations be much richer, they will have access to better technologies with which to address any problems caused by man-made climate change, nuclear waste and geo-engineering projects.
As bioethicists are always fond of saying, I'm just asking questions here.
*Humor? Not so much.
joe | March 25, 2008, 2:16pm | #
From the IPCC 4:
Small Pacific Islands are the subject of much concern in
view of their vulnerability to sea level rise. The Pacific Ocean
region is the centre of the strongest interannual variability of the
climate system, the coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO mode.
There are only a few Pacific Island sea level records extending
back to before 1950. Mitchell et al. (2001) calculated rates of
relative sea level rise for the stations in the Pacifi c region. Using
their results (from their Table 1) and focusing on only the island
stations with more than 50 years of data (only 4 locations), the
average rate of sea level rise (relative to the Earth’s crust) is
1.6 mm yr–1. For island stations with record lengths greater than
25 years (22 locations), the average rate of relative sea level rise
is 0.7 mm yr–1. However, these data sets contain a large range
of rates of relative sea level change, presumably as a result of
poorly quantifi ed vertical land motions.
An example of the large interannual variability in sea level
is Kwajalein (8°44’N, 167°44’E) (Marshall Archipelago).
As shown in Figure 5.18, the local tide gauge data, the sea
level reconstructions of Church et al. (2004) and Church and
White (2006) and the shorter satellite altimeter record all
agree and indicate that interannual variations associated with
ENSO events are greater than 0.2 m. The Kwajalein data also
suggest increased variability in sea level after the mid-1970s,
consistent with the trend towards more frequent, persistent
and intense ENSO events since the mid-1970s (Folland et
al., 2001). For the Kwajalein record, the rate of sea level rise,
after correction for GIA land motions and isostatic response to
atmospheric pressure changes, is 1.9 ± 0.7 mm yr–1. However,
Figure 5.17. Overlapping 10-year rates of global sea level change from tide gauge
data sets (Holgate and Woodworth, 2004, in solid black; Church and White, 2006, in
dashed black) and satellite altimetry (updated from Cazenave and Nerem, 2004, in
green), and contributions to global sea level change from thermal expansion (Ishii et
al., 2006, in solid red; Antonov et al., 2005, in dashed red) and climate-driven land
water storage (Ngo-Duc et al., 2005, in blue). Each rate is plotted against the middle
of its 10-year period.
414
Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level Chapter 5
the uncertainties in rates of sea level change increase rapidly
with decreasing record length and can be several mm yr–1
for decade-long records (depending on the magnitude of
the interannual variability). Sea level change on the atolls of
Tuvalu (western Pacifi c) has been the subject of intense interest
as a result of their low-lying nature and increasing incidence of
fl ooding. There are two records available at Funafuti, Tuvalu;
the fi rst record commences in 1977 and the second (with
rigorous datum control) in 1993. After allowing for subsidence
affecting the fi rst record, Church et al. (2006) estimate sea level
rise at Tuvalu to be 2.0 ± 1.7 mm yr
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