I've got a bunch of friends in Iowa reporting out the race, and the storylines I've heard from them all are:
- Hillary Clinton has the smartest people in the Democratic primary working for her, and if it wasn't for them she'd already be out of this.
- Ron Paul's organization is tight and energetic, and they're turning out all their caucusgoers.
- Fred Thompson's campaign events have been small and sluggish.
- Barack Obama headed off an Edwards surge as some of the second-tier candidates told their supporters to back him as their second choices. (In the Democratic race, if your candidate doesn't get 15 percent of the room you caucus for someone else.)
- Democratic excitement is palpable. Republican excitement is non-existent.
Based on that, my incredibly safe predictions:
Democrats (final votes, including second choices)
Barack Obama 32
John Edwards 30
Hillary Clinton 27
Joe Biden 5
Bill Richardson 4
The others 2
Republicans
Mitt Romney 31
Mike Huckabee 29
Ron Paul 13
John McCain 11
Fred Thompson 9
Rudy Giuliani 5
The others 4
Of course, no one is watching all the candidates. It's all about the storylines for Obama, Clinton, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. The only way Paul breaks into the headlines is if he beats the allegedly surging McCain and Thompson, although a McCain loss would be brushed off and a Thompson loss portrayed as the end of his campaign. (Reporters seem to be craving a McCain win in New Hampshire, for the amazing comeback story as much as anything.)
Post your predictions or gossip in the comments. I'll be at Murphy's Taproom in Manchester watching the caucues with a very optimistic Paul crowd, and will be liveblogging from there.
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!
8:30: Nestled in at the bar and talking to Paulites who are restlessly catching CNN harp on the Democratic race. They liked an "entrance poll" that showed Hillary up: "She's the easiest to beat."
8:32: This must be the only Republican party that's tuned in to CNN and not Fox News. I'm listening more to the exit poll questions than the miniscule precinct results. Huge female turnout sounds good for Clinton while the fact that voters prioritized "change" over "experience" sounds good for Obama... and the low percentage of independent voters sounds bad for Obama. I'm not hearing as much about the GOP...
8:38: A lot of derision here at the way CNN is leaving a big white pie piece in the chart where the Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Duncan Hunter vote should be.
8:48: More data, finally, and Paul's at 10 percent: A lot of relieved cheers at this party. But CNN is still showing that blank piece. As to the Democrats, Kos reports that the early counties are rural John Edwards counties, which bodes really poorly for him -- he's in a dead heat as the Clinton and Obama counties start to come in.
8:50: From the party: "We can come in eleventy-millionth place as long as we beat Giuliani!" They're screaming and clapping whenever a county result shows Paul clobbering Rudy.
8:56: CNN projects a Huckabee victory. There are some quiet boos and yells of "Huuuckster!"
9:04: There's gloating about Romney's defeat ("All those millions! His poor kids!") and a few cheers when Obama pulls ahead of Hillary and Edwards. I ask a "hard-right Republican" named Pete why he cheered. "I just want the crime family out of there," he says, referring to the Clintons. "Obama's a hard lefty but as long as we don't have the Clintons running we can have a battle of ideas. We can talk about the Constitution."
9:20: If the Democratic results keep up - Clinton literally tied with Edwards but only margin-of-error tied with Obama - it doesn't exactly look like a three way tie. It looks like a clear Obama win.
9:27: And NBC News calls for Obama. This is better for him than it is for Huckabee - Hillary and Edwards are so bunched up he can declare his victory before they can claim second place.
9:36: I'm uncomfortable predicting too much when the GOP race for third is so close, but I think McCain has little to worry about even if he slips behind Ron Paul. Romney is utterly humiliated: I'm going to have to check out one of his New Hampshire events to see how many advance men it takes to prop up his corpse. This is the expectation game. It doesn't matter that Romney doubled McCain's vote, it mattered that McCain was able to strut onstage and make fun of his effort to "buy the election."
9:39: People who won't be vice president: Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa whose mighty operation was enough to win the Democratic frontrunner third place. Also Ted Strickland, the governor of Ohio who trashed the Iowa caucuses to a reporter merely days ago. People who might be: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, for handing their votes to Obama. (So did Kucinich but his nomination as VP is less likely, let's say.)
9:46: Huge catcalls for Giuliani when he arrives on CNN (his reward for losing to Ron Paul?): A voice behind me blares "Fuck you, fucker!" And there's some grumbling about how Wolf Blitzer referred to Paul's 7,800 votes as "seven thousand" and Giuliani's 2,700 as "almost three thousand."
9:55: The Paul party is sort of starting to disperse. A key hope of the volunteers is dying tonight: The hope that there were thousands of voters who the polls were missing but would turn out for Paul. He's only winning as many votes as the polls suggested he would. So he's set to keep scoring high single digits or low double digits unless something incredible happens - maybe Newt Gingrich enters the race, quits, and endorses Paul on the way out.
9:58: Just as I typed that I joined a conversation on Paul's percentage, already in progress. "I was hoping for 15, 17 percent" said a Pittsburgh volunteer named Bill. Frank, a campaign worker who came here with Operation Live Free or Die, is more optimistic: "That much of the Republican vote, that's Perot territory." Dun-dun-dun-dunnnnn.
10:04: I'm by no means the first person to say this, but here's the key difference between the parties tonight. Half of Democrats look at this picture and feel neutral; half of them look at it and feel elated. Half of Republicans look at his picture and feel worried; one-quarter feel enraged; one-quarter are happy, but it's that bitter, Kurt Russell dropping the truck on the bad guy in Breakdown kind of happy. If they weren't Christians they'd be flipping the bird.
10:24: No surprise, John Edwards tried to steal some Obama thunder by proclaiming "a victory over the status quo." He cheers up the crowd by telling stories of poor people who have it worse then them.
10:30: Laughs, jeers and catcalls when Hillary Clinton zooms onto the screen to concede. One Paulite grabs a Hillary sign and jumps up and down in front of the TV: "Hillary! Hillary! She's the easiest to beat!" The room picks it up. "Ron Paul can beat her!" "Ron Paul can beat anybody!" There's a whole lot of joy (and some pointing) at the sad Bill Clinton next to Hillary... when's the last time he had to stand on a concession stage?
10:33: Did Clinton promise to leave no child behind?
10:41: Like Stephen Spruiell reported today, the lefty netroots have made a long, curious march away from Barack Obama to John Edwards. There was plenty of enthusiasm for Obama in late 2006 and early 2007, it tempered over the course of the year, and in the last weeks Paul Krugman has led a pile-on of Obama for (among other things) not covering everyone in his health care plan, attacking trial lawyers, and arguing that Gore and Kerry had been too divisive. But since Edwards has narrowly moved past Hillary in Iowa I don't think there'll be a rush back to Obama. Edwards won his biggest-ever margin in the Daily Kos straw poll yesterday.
Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread (and Liveblogging)
Comments to "Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread (and Liveblogging)":
joe | January 3, 2008, 7:01pm | #
The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will be...The New England Patriots!
Ali | January 3, 2008, 7:04pm | #
Mitt Romney 31Mike Huckabee 29
Ron Paul 13
Agreed, except Paul will be slightly higher than 13 (anxious, fingers crossed)
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 7:05pm | #
Which one of the talking heads is least annoying? It's been a while since I've seen cable news and Chris Mathews seems like a pompous blowhardCNN has been sucking up to Paul. Even Michelle Malkin was nice to him on her blog. Seriously. Time of reckoning.
Lost_In_Translation | January 3, 2008, 7:07pm | #
The real winner of the Iowa caucus is the television networks. This is primetime!!!joe | January 3, 2008, 7:11pm | #
Da Bears: 72%Mitt Romney: 9%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
Rudy Guiliani: 2%
But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to caucus with if they don't get 15%?
Who, I ask you?
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 7:13pm | #
What does the media see so appealing about Bloomberg?Cesar | January 3, 2008, 7:14pm | #
A third place finish for Paul would be pretty amazing.Its death for Huckabee if he doesn't win Iowa, same for Edwards. Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie.
Hillary Clinton is good no matter what happens, unless she finishes in fourth or lower. Which just isn't happening.
Gimme Back My Dog | January 3, 2008, 7:14pm | #
And the Boston Bruins! Oh, wait. Never mind.Joe, that question reminds me of the traditional story where there's an election for group president or some such, and no one's allowed to vote for himself. Everyone wants to be elected, so they don't want to strengthen their rivals' hands, and so vote for someone who couldn't possibly win. But everyone else does the same thing, so the least popular guy wins...
John C. Randolph | January 3, 2008, 7:16pm | #
I think that Ron Paul could take second, since a larger proportion of his supporters will actually show up.-jcr
prolefeed | January 3, 2008, 7:16pm | #
But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to caucus with if they don't get 15%?joe, IIRC, only the Democrats have this braindead rule that less than 15% forces you to vote for someone else.
joe | January 3, 2008, 7:16pm | #
Bingo,He's the most bipartisanly centristic example of centrist bipartisanship from the center, and not from the extremes, ever to centristically...
aw, screw it. He's rich and he seems like the sort of person who would throw good cocktail hours and invite the powerful people from both parties.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 7:18pm | #
jcr: That's a very real possibility. Especially if enthusiasm for the GOP is as low as Dave says it is.Fluffy | January 3, 2008, 7:20pm | #
Dear Duncan Hunter:Please find a way to beat Rudy Giuliani. I will share Dondero's sweet, sweet tears with you if you do.
That is all.
Fluffy
joe | January 3, 2008, 7:23pm | #
Cesar,I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.
And I think the only outcome that would matter among the Democrats would be somebody coming in a distant, rather than close, third.
NP | January 3, 2008, 7:25pm | #
The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will be...The New England Patriots!
Ha. Good one, joe.
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 7:26pm | #
I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.Given the expected Thompson drop out--who was the leading Southern candidates--,that could be entirely true. But remember how Dean was supposed to clean up in New England despite losing Iowa? And Huckabee doesn't even have the money Dean did. No victories, a front loaded schedule, and lack of money could sap his momentum without an early victory.
NAL | January 3, 2008, 7:29pm | #
I think that Ron Paul could take second, ..."If he works real hard and applies himself...he could go another foot!"
zero | January 3, 2008, 7:31pm | #
I can confirm one supporter of Dr. Paul in the state of Iowa. My brother told me he was going to support him in Washington township.Other than that I have no real idea how things will turn out.
joe | January 3, 2008, 7:32pm | #
Cesar,But remember how Dean was supposed to clean up in New England despite losing Iowa?
No. Not at all. John Kerry was going to win New Hampshire (the first) and Massachusetts (the biggest) even before he was projected to win Iowa. That's my recollection, anyway. Maybe I've just forgotten.
No victories, a front loaded schedule, and lack of money could sap his momentum without an early victory. I'd say that Super-Duper Tuesday is SO front-loaded that it all but guarantees a big split.
Electronic Taoist | January 3, 2008, 7:34pm | #
Considering how the Paul campaign so consistently exceeded my expectations all of last year, put me down for a stunning Ron Paul victory in Iowa tonight.Horrible, horrible optimism...
BakedPenguin | January 3, 2008, 7:34pm | #
If Huckabee wins, everyone's going to be gunning for him. And there's a lot to shoot at, even if you're not libertarian.NY Voter | January 3, 2008, 7:35pm | #
The Newshour just had a run down of all the candidates. Although they gushed and analyzed McCain and Thompson along with the front runners, they seemed to forget Dr. Paul is in the race.Tax Hike Mike will not be able to stand the scrutiny of being the front runner.
On the Democratic side I expect them to draw up to three times as many people as the Republicans, and I'd say if Obama can turn out independents he will win otherwise it will be Edwards...Hillary will be in 3rd for sure.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 3, 2008, 7:43pm | #
"Its death for Huckabee if he doesn't win Iowa, same for Edwards. Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie." Shit, joe beat me. I think Huck only has to do 1-3 in Iowa. He'll do poorly in NH but SC looks like his cup of tea.Romney should be strong everywhere since he has, at some time in his career, said something to please everyone. And he is largely self-financing his campaign (this is supposed to show his "electability" in the eyes of fools like National Review I guess). That guy is just a terrible, terrible human being imo.
Does anyone think Rudy could do poorly in Iowa, NH and SC and depend on kicking ass in FL, NY and CA (which have lots o' delegates)? Polls show it as a possibility, but I imagine more bad news (losing the first three big time) will make his support dwindle in the big states by the time the elections get there...
rho | January 3, 2008, 7:43pm | #
I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.While anything is possible, I think this is incorrect. The South is highly religious, but also pretty denominational, so merely propping up a preacher isn't a surefire strategy. Southern Baptists don't necessarily hang with the charismatics who don't grok the hardshells. Religion is a lot more fractious than race. Or naked jingoism disguised as patriotism, which is where the GOP thinks it will gather the most Southern votes. Thus the Party's shrugs over Romney and Giuliani.
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 7:45pm | #
Here are my predictions:Democrats
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
All will be so close the media will call it a three-way tie. Edwards either gets a clue and drops out or his campaign begins its descent into Duncan Hunter territory.
Republicans:
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) McCain
4) Paul (Sorry, playing it safe here)
Rudy is finished, his tactics were flawed and he won't be able to recover(he certainly won't win in the first three and by then the damage is done).
joe | January 3, 2008, 7:47pm | #
I don't think Rudy can win New York.Republicans in New York are economic conservatives, first and foremost. The "Reagan Democrat" types and moderates in New York are Democrats. Heck, Hillary won Republican upstate New York!
In one-party states and cities, the public will sometimes pick a minority-party candidate for the executive branch because they want somebody to check and slow down the majority party, even as they strongly side with the basic philosophy of that majority party. This is Romney in MA and Rudy in NYC. This doesn't demonstrate either an ability to appeal to the majority party, or strong support from the minority-party stalwarts.
Mr. Nice Guy | January 3, 2008, 7:48pm | #
Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they hang with the DLC?At this point, since I want a Dem to win, I actually think while Hillary and Obama are both just terrible national candidates that Hillary is the less terrible (though a worse person and bound to be a worse leader imo).
I should be rooting for Romney since I think he's the weaker of the GOP frontrunners, but that man is the Anti-Christ, plain and simple.
rho | January 3, 2008, 7:48pm | #
Also, regarding the Independents. If they turn out to make a difference in the Dem caucuses it will only hurt Paul. If the Dem turnout turns out to be 3X the Repubs as James suggests, Paul is probably looking at fourth. Or fifth.That's a pure wild-ass guess, but I don't think the ground-game in Iowa is as good as it seems to be in New Hampshire, according to the reports I've read about it.
I still wish Richardson was more of a factor.
James | January 3, 2008, 7:48pm | #
Dems:Obama 33
Edwards 31
Clinton 24
Repubs:
Huckster 30
Mittens 28
Paul 13
McCain 12
JLM | January 3, 2008, 7:49pm | #
Joe,Da Bears: 72%
Mitt Romney: 9%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
Rudy Guiliani: 2%
Thanks, I just blew beer outta my nose. You owe me a new keyboard.
And your forgot one possibility. What if da good Dr. changes his name to Dit-ka?
If Edwards doesn't do well in Iowa and drops, I'd expect his supporters to go mostly to Obama.
sine | January 3, 2008, 7:51pm | #
My 3 wishes for the night:-Good beer.
-Paul beats McCain and Giuliani.
-Either Romney or Hillary suffers a humiliating defeat.
Make me proud, Iowa.
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 7:52pm | #
Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they hang with the DLC?They go over to Obama. Edwards big shtick is his
Clinton, to her credit, doesn't hold fantasies about textile mills and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans again in 2009.
James | January 3, 2008, 7:53pm | #
"-Either Romney or Hillary suffers a humiliating defeat."Can't we have both???
Dershowitz | January 3, 2008, 7:53pm | #
Yeah, baby! Obama and Romney FTW! Harvard Law School versus . . . THAT'S RIGHT, HARVARD LAW SCHOOL!Just hand over the whole government now, and I'll allow you to kiss my tennis racket.
An unforced error killed Rudy's shot at POTUS | January 3, 2008, 7:59pm | #
Rudy's campaign is already dead, he just doesn't know it yet. His fatal error was when he lied in that debate last year:"That's an extraordinary statement as someone who lived through the attack of Sept. 11, that we invited the attack because we were attacking Iraq. I don't think I've ever heard that before and I've heard some pretty absurd explanations for Sept. 11. I would ask the congressman to withdraw that comment and tell us that he didn't really mean that."
The fact that the man would use such rank and obvious bullshit as his front line of defense is all too telling. People don't like liars. Stick a fork in him, he's done.
kwais | January 3, 2008, 8:00pm | #
Hey does anyone know how I can vote in the primaries in Nevada?I am in Egypt right now. Would I have to fly home? Can I vote at the embassy?
Edward | January 3, 2008, 8:02pm | #
Dorky Ron Paul doesn't make it to third place.On the other hand...Paul is the only Republican with enthusiasm on his side. Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of excitement among those in the Party of Bush.
kwais | January 3, 2008, 8:07pm | #
Edward,Even if all the criticisms you have of Ron Paul, and of libertarians are dead on. Your continued presence here would still be a indication of some sort of mental imbalance.
Only the Dems do the 15% threshold, so that definitly benefits the Doctor.
Graphite | January 3, 2008, 8:09pm | #
Clinton, to her credit, doesn't hold fantasies about textile mills and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans again in 2009.Oh, come on, surely we can jump start this economy again if we'll just pass Smooth Hawley II!
Taktix® | January 3, 2008, 8:09pm | #
Crap, I have nothing insightful to offer. Oh well:Ron Paul: 100%
All Others: Bollucks
I need to go pick up some beer...
Some guy in Iowa keeps staring at the CNN camera, all creepy lookin'
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:12pm | #
Already beat ya to the beer Taktix!Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:14pm | #
Ugggghhhhh "don't know who they're going to vote for yet" at the entrance polls.rho | January 3, 2008, 8:17pm | #
Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of excitement among those in the Party of BushCertainly possible, but I don't think so. Paul is bringing in new people to the Republican party, not tapping a silent majority within the party.
Most of this is blind speculation, because I don't think we have anything like an accurate pulse on the body politic. I think this election season will show current polling methods to be dangerously inaccurate. I could be wrong--Iowa will be a good test case. But if Iowa proves the pollsters to be full of shit, all bets are off and guesswork becomes the new black.
John-David | January 3, 2008, 8:17pm | #
I told my dad, who is a Republican, but is barely following the horserace at this point, that Ron Paul will come in at worse 3rd in Iowa. I hate looking bad to my dad, so I'm pretty sure I'm right.Edward | January 3, 2008, 8:17pm | #
Enthusiasm for Ron Paul = Shitjimmydageek | January 3, 2008, 8:18pm | #
The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:18pm | #
This is the most retarded shit I have ever seen.Sam Grove | January 3, 2008, 8:18pm | #
Edward,In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul campaign.
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 8:19pm | #
The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in general.
jimmydageek | January 3, 2008, 8:19pm | #
Edward,Trolling against Ron Paul = hairs on the shit
Mommy must be proud of you.
I used to live in Iowa and caucused for the Dems, it was interesting, and fun for a political junkie like me. I actually prefer it to the Primary where you just walk in and out.
joe | January 3, 2008, 8:22pm | #
Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in general.That is copletely unfair!
Ali | January 3, 2008, 8:22pm | #
I hate looking bad to my dad, so I'm pretty sure I'm right.Right now I am afraid looking bad to Fox News who would have a field day telling us all how Paul and his followers were doomed from the beginning. And of course that they knew it all along. God, please, don't let that happen!
John-David | January 3, 2008, 8:22pm | #
BTW, Intrade has it Huckabee, Romney, and the Field (aka Paul). In that order.Observer | January 3, 2008, 8:23pm | #
surely we can jump start this economy again if we'll just pass Smooth Hawley II!President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax. This is going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.
joe | January 3, 2008, 8:24pm | #
The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator says "Ron Paul is in this race for the duration."
Ali | January 3, 2008, 8:24pm | #
In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul campaign.
Excellent idea! Every time Dondero or Edward poke fun at Paul or his followers, each one of us would donate 5-100$ (depending on the level of the trolling) to Paul. That ought to teach them both (and hopefully stop them).
Even though I am a Dem, I might vote for Paul in the primaries just to wipe that damn smirk off of Hannity's face.
Graphite | January 3, 2008, 8:25pm | #
If Ron Paul takes fourth or fifth, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward will rejoice at "the defeat of the Paultards."If Ron Paul takes third, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward will rejoice at "the defeat of the Paultards."
beetlejuice; formerly known as Lurker Dave | January 3, 2008, 8:26pm | #
@ kwais:Already pointed out in a previous thread that Edward needs a shrink. Pretty pathetic, when he can prompt a former lurker to jump on board to bash him.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:26pm | #
I'm sorry, prolefeed, the correct answer is "Da Bears."I don't know about that. Even the mighty Ditka declined to run against Obama for the Senate back in '04 (and yes, the Illinois GOP was courting him quite strongly).
NoStar | January 3, 2008, 8:27pm | #
Edward says "Dorky Ron Paul doesn't make it to third place."Nothing has given me more hope than that, all day. Da do Ron Run Run, da do Ron Run!
sixstring | January 3, 2008, 8:27pm | #
What if da good Dr. changes his name to Dit-ka?Then he'd be Dr. No Dit-ka. Probably not the best career move.
Graphite | January 3, 2008, 8:28pm | #
President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax. This is going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.Ach! I hope H&R never institutes post editing ... the jokes about typos are just too good to give up.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:28pm | #
2% reporting in and things are looking dire for Paul!!!!!! omg!!!beetlejuice | January 3, 2008, 8:29pm | #
joe wrote:That is copletely unfair!
Sloppy and prone to error=joe
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:30pm | #
Here ya go Ali :D http://www.politico.com/iowacaucuses/iowamap-popup.htmlBingo- I only found this: http://www.politico.com/iowacaucuses/iowamap-popup.html
Entrance polls show Clinton leading slightly over Obama and Edwards...according to CNN.
Reinmoose | January 3, 2008, 8:31pm | #
The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator says "Ron Paul is in this race for the duration."
I saw that too, joe.
I've been watching news coverage for the past few weeks, and only today, TODAY, has the MSM even so much discussed Paul as though he will get REAL votes, and without condescending smirks on their faces.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:33pm | #
Bingo,It's looking pretty bad for Giuliani and Romney, too -- they're at 0%. I predict Duncan Hunter shocks everyone and wins it.
What in the world are the number underneath the candidates' names? The number of people who "voted"? 20 or something so far and that is 2%?
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:33pm | #
Mine is conveniently clickable for any other people that want to check it ;)Floyd | January 3, 2008, 8:33pm | #
From the New York Times Caucus page:7:20 p.m. | Rockin’ Out Lucky us! Ron Paul is having a party right next to our work space. His space is completely empty, except for the bartender and a couple of cops. But there’s a live band warming up. That means a throbbing beat is vibrating these thin hotel partitions. Our whole collective head is vibrating too. Is this Mr. Paul’s revenge on the MSM?
Taktix® | January 3, 2008, 8:34pm | #
Whoa! On CNN they had the first GOP numbers in, and there was a big blank spot, like about 12-13%Are they just going to pretend Paul doesn't exist?
beetlejuice | January 3, 2008, 8:34pm | #
Why do none of the reporting counties show anybody receiving more than 0%?beetlejuice | January 3, 2008, 8:35pm | #
Never mind, just found a few.crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:35pm | #
Wait a minute...according to that Politico site, 37 votes is 4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low... ;-)Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:36pm | #
Reports are coming in...Looks good for Huckabee... Big turnout from rural areas, and Religious Conservatives.
That's not good for Economic Conservatives (and libertarians) supporting Romney.
Let's hope things get better for Mitt as the big cities start reporting in.
Reinmoose | January 3, 2008, 8:36pm | #
My prediction:Dems:
Edwards: 32
Obama: 30
Clinton: 29
Reps:
Huckabee: 31
Romney: 29
Paul: 14
McCain: 12
TDL | January 3, 2008, 8:38pm | #
I don't post here that often. I am compelled to post b/c I want to see a strong showing by Ron Paul not b/c of dick spits like Edward and Dondero, but b/c I want to see what the blathering gasbags on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc. reaction will be.Regards,
TDL
Ali | January 3, 2008, 8:38pm | #
Wait a minute...according to that Politico site, 37 votes is 4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low... ;-);-) Yes! Hopefully all the young people will brave the weather for Da Man!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:39pm | #
Dondero,I thought Rudy wanted Mitt's Flip-Flop Express to lose in IA.
Or are you changing allegiance?
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:39pm | #
Paul at ~13% in Des Moines CountyTaktix® | January 3, 2008, 8:39pm | #
Fuck you CNN! They're leaving a good 15% or so off of the pie chart.Any better suggestions?
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:40pm | #
If you roll the mouse over the individual counties, the percentages for Paul don't look so bad. He was up to 27% in Iowa County (I think that's where U of Iowa is).Kwix | January 3, 2008, 8:40pm | #
crimethink,He knows Giuliani doesn't have a prayer in Iowa and can't bring himself to felate the Huckster.
Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:42pm | #
So far not looking good for populist leftwing candidate Ron Paul.He's not in the Top Four.
Fox is reporting McCain in 4th at 12%, but nothing beyond that.
Huck, Romney and then Thompson lead.
Graphite | January 3, 2008, 8:42pm | #
You know something, if you had told us one year ago that we were gonna come in third in Iowa, we woulda given anything for that.And you know something? You know something? Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Larkin, we're goin' to South Carolina, and Oklahoma, and Arizona!, and NORTH DAKOTA, and NEW MEXICO, AND WE'RE GOING TO CALIFORNIA, AND TEXAS, AND NEW YORK, AND WE'RE GOING TO SOUTH DAKOTA, ANOREGON, AND WASHINGTON, AND MICHIGAN!! AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKEBACKTHEWHITEHOUSE!!!!!!!
YEEEEAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:43pm | #
RP is in second in Polk Co., waaaayyy behind Huckabee, though (40% - 17%).Other Matt | January 3, 2008, 8:43pm | #
President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax....Bill will be along to take care of you in a minute...Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:43pm | #
Lower right Ali.These are probably all the farmhouses reporting in, the larger venues will take longer to count.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:44pm | #
Crimethink, I'm with Rudy til the end. But am a big supporter of Mitt and Fred, as well.I've got bunches of libertarian friends in the Mitt Romney campaign. We've sort of struck a deal.
Last couple weeks both the Romney campaign and the Rudy campaign have gotten friendlier. We both recognize that both our candidates are strong Economic Conservatives, and that we must head off the Huck Monster!!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:44pm | #
Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?They must be using the Diebold machines! Those people at the RP meetup were right!
Cows can't vote? If they could, who would they vote for? I predict Mr. G.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:45pm | #
Crimethink, I'm with Rudy til the end.Might not be very long.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:46pm | #
Shiiiit!Fox is reporting a "huge number of evangelicals coming out to vote."
Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against the Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!
We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!
Kwix | January 3, 2008, 8:47pm | #
Eric,No shit. Too bad you threw your weight, not saying you are fat, behind a man who couldn't be bothered to run in Iowa.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:49pm | #
Kwix, Iowa is hardcore religious conservative territory. Has always been.How could they have ever liked a libertarian-leaning Pro-Choice Economic Conservative like Rudy?
New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon on the other hand???
Prime Rudy Territory.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:50pm | #
So Edwards is going to protect Unions from special interest groups... what?Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:50pm | #
Eric: What about NH? ;)crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:51pm | #
Dondero,Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson have already peaked. If you would deny the Huck Monster, you must forsake your pride and embrace the rLOVEution. Our Leader is ruthlessly just, but also bounteously merciful.
Reinmoose | January 3, 2008, 8:52pm | #
Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against the Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!
That's right! Join us with Paul against Huckabee!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:53pm | #
Prime Rudy Territory.If you're so confident, why are you flailing around like a walrus bitten by a shark? Why have you befriended your main competitor in Mitt Romney?
Ali | January 3, 2008, 8:54pm | #
OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!What in the world does that mean!?!?
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:55pm | #
Tonight may be a Shock & Awe for Fiscal Cons & Libertarians. So, some good may come out of it.Perhaps it will wake us all up, and force us to combine our efforts and unite against the most unlibertarian of all candidates Mike Huckabee.
Fred Thompson supporters...
Rudy Giuliani supporters...
Mitt Romney supporters...
We need to stop the Huck Monster!!!
Chancellor | January 3, 2008, 8:55pm | #
OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!What in the world does that mean!?!?
Sounds like a Gilligan's Island Reference... beyond that...?
I still believe that if cows were enfranchised in Iowa, they'd vote Hill and Guilliani.
I didn't expect Thompson would be this strong. I thought he was basically on suicide watch.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:55pm | #
Fox just announced that Huckabee has won the Iowa Caucus.A genuinely sad day for liberty.
Ali | January 3, 2008, 8:56pm | #
Sounds like a Gilligan's Island Reference... beyond that...?Yes, please. I have no idea what Gilligan is (must some sort of weirdo sci-fi stuff --but really this is not the time). Sorry!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 8:57pm | #
Looks like Paul and McCain are neck in neck, slightly behind Thompson. With 85% left to count, third place is still a significant possibility. Romney is waaaaaaay behind Huck.Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:57pm | #
Great, people that think the earth was created 6,000 years ago get to pick a leader. Goddamn.Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:57pm | #
The total Fiscal Conservative/libertarian vote is 40%.Romney at 23%
Thompson at 14%
Giuliani at 3%
That's much larger than Huckabee's 33% margin.
Time to unite against the Huck Monster fellow Fiscal Cons/libertarians!!
Kwix | January 3, 2008, 8:58pm | #
Donderooo,You have obviously never lived in Florida. The only "social liberals" like your beloved Giuliani are Yankee retires who vote Democrat. I doubt his song will play well in the rural West either. Indeed, if there is a strong Huck showing down the road, I fully expect Florida to go to him.
Southern Fried Baptists!
If we're only 15% in, why are people so conclusive? I have no TV where I am now, would someone please explain how Fox is able to report the (final?) result so early?
Mitt Romney is on FoxNews right now and the look on his face.... priceless
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 8:59pm | #
Yes Ali, it is over.Where you been?
You know the Reason H&R blog is the place to be for all such events. You went AWOL on your H&R bretheren, and missed all the fun.
Shame, shame.
crimetink | January 3, 2008, 8:59pm | #
Eric,Your point would be stronger if you add the 11% from you-know-who...come on, do it. DO IT!
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 8:59pm | #
Paul at 11%lol @ u
This just in: Iowa's slack-jawed hicks pick Turd Sandwich over Giant Douche. Dondero despondent.
I recall certain networks calling it for Gore some years back...
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:00pm | #
Kwix, I am a graduate of Florida State University.I lived in Florida for 15 years. Was stationed there in the Navy - Jax.
My parents live in the Villages.
I'm Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North Florida, like the back of my hand.
Florida is Crist Country: Fiscally Conservative/Socially Tolerant!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:00pm | #
Ali,Assuming that the precincts that are reporting are representative of the state (ie, similar proportion of urban/rural, etc), Huck's 15% lead is going to be nearly imposible for Romney to surmount.
The original lyrics to the Gilligan's island song was "..and the rest!" Leaving the Professor and Marianne out of the song altogether.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 9:01pm | #
Republican Party is fucked if Huckabee is nominated.crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:02pm | #
On the Politico tracking site, doesn't it look like Ron Paul is sticking out his tongue in his photo?rho | January 3, 2008, 9:02pm | #
Crimethink, I'm with Rudy til the end. But am a big supporter of Mitt and Fred, as well.Shorter Dondero:
I'll sucky-sucky, but anal and scat are not off the table, yo.
Say, Eric Dondero, how's your campaign going to supplant Ron Paul in the TX14 district?
Chris Matthews is already trashing Huckabee right after hes been projected the winner. The media has built up Huckabee, now they're going to have fun tearing him down.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:06pm | #
Just went up to 25% reporting...Huck went down, Romney went up, Thompson went down, McCain unchanged, Paul a smidgen down.According to Kos, Clinton in 3rd with about a third reporting... nice.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 9:06pm | #
Is this really a surprise? A big government religious candidate won in a state that loves its agricultural subsidies.Cesar | January 3, 2008, 9:07pm | #
According to Kos, Clinton in 3rd with about a third reporting... nice.No result can hurt Clinton unless its a really distant third. She can spin it anyway she wants to make it look good otherwise.
Kwix | January 3, 2008, 9:09pm | #
Donderoooo,FSU, good party school. Kellum Hall, first stop.
Crist country. Riiiight. Sorry, I haven't lived there since Jeb Bush was Gov. My bad.
It must have been my imagination that there were more churches than gas stations and that our gun shows might as well have functioned as KKK meetings. But then again, I didn't stay in the college town, nor the Yankee retirement communities as you apparently did.
I know North Florida, lived there for 12 years myself, and Religious Conservative it is. Leon County may not be but everything to the west is.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:09pm | #
Wow. The Politico site is definitely the best. Great graphics. Up-to-date detailed info.Good job Politico.
And yes, it does look like Ron Paul is sticking his tongue out.
Bingo | January 3, 2008, 9:10pm | #
RNC chairman doesn't answer the question, has canned answers. This is even more retarded than the Dem's cattle drive to vote.crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:10pm | #
Yeah, Clinton is 3rd...and she's about 2% behind Obama in the lead. It's not over by any stretch of the imagination.Seminole | January 3, 2008, 9:10pm | #
I'm Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North Florida, like the back of my hand.Prove it
Where is Munson Slough? Two Egg?
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:12pm | #
Well, the GOP is set for 1st and 2nd.3rd, 4th, and 5th is gonna be more interesting.
Looks like Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel couldn't even muster 15% at any of the caucuses...
Kwix | January 3, 2008, 9:13pm | #
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?
That blank spot just doubled in size on CNN, nearly a quarter is blank.
Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever guessed that a few months ago?
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:14pm | #
zero,Oops. I assumed Iowa City was in Iowa County. Shows what happens when you AssUMe...
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:14pm | #
I really hope Mitt Romney takes Iowa. That way, he can hire me and I can afford to pay for hookers on K Street again!Bingo | January 3, 2008, 9:15pm | #
Anyone want to chip in for some Czech language lessons?crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:15pm | #
Cesar,If Romney pulls NH out of the fire, he might be OK. Given how close it looks like the Dems will be, most indeps are going to be voting in the Dem primary, so McCain (and Paul) are going to be hurt by that.
Chancellor | January 3, 2008, 9:15pm | #
UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?
Liveblogging, engage!
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:16pm | #
Oooo, Barack is pulling away. He's up by 3% now over Edwards and Clinton.zero | January 3, 2008, 9:16pm | #
crimethink:Easy mistake to make. I know because I graduated from the U of I. I still don't see any results from the county my family lives in, Jackson.
Chancellor | January 3, 2008, 9:17pm | #
CNN just projected Guiliani beating Paul.Old Media is dead. Long live the Internets!
Cesar | January 3, 2008, 9:18pm | #
Since Huckabee has won, its time to quote one of my personal heroes, Barry Goldwater:When you say 'radical Right' today, I think of these moneymaking ventures by fellows like Pat Robertson and others who are trying to take the Republican party away from the Republican party and make a religious organization out of it. If that ever happens, kiss politics good-bye."
KJ | January 3, 2008, 9:18pm | #
I'm a bit nerved at the edge Thompson has currently.Condoleeza Rice | January 3, 2008, 9:18pm | #
Do you want to know why I donated $2.3k to Ron Paul's campaign? I did this 90% for a slim chance to see that smarmy fuck George Stephanopoulos get his lunch eaten. Edward James Olmos wannabe bad-skinned fucker.crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:19pm | #
WTF?! Giuliani just jumped from 3% to 11%?!Diebold machines! ;-)
Chancellor | January 3, 2008, 9:19pm | #
WTF, CNN?!? What is up with the white space? It's just bizarre.rho | January 3, 2008, 9:20pm | #
Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever guessed that a few months ago?I wouldn't put too much on the Iowa caucus. Huckabee is a soft target.
The Wikipedia entry for the Iowa caucuses has a floating Obama JPEG on top of it. That made me laugh.
Why did Dean say that Scooter Libby was pardoned? His sentence was commuted, but he certainly wasn't pardoned.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:20pm | #
With 41% reporting, Huckabee dropped way down, Romney unchanged, Thompson dropped a little, McCain unchanged, Paul drops a little, and Giuliani rockets ahead of Paul!BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Giuliani just got over 3500 votes in fucking Linn county. What's in Linn county?
KJ | January 3, 2008, 9:21pm | #
How the hell did Giuliani make that jump? Boggles my mind.Earlier the top 4 republicans = 85%, and Paul was at 11% (25% of precincts reporting); now the top 4 = 77% (41% reporting) -- did Paul gain ground? Thompson only 13% and McCain 12%...
Tom Walls | January 3, 2008, 9:21pm | #
Eric knows Fla., believe me.Two Egg, isn't that where they banned 1984 from the library back in the '80s?
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:22pm | #
Chancellor,Now that Giuliani is ahead of Paul, they'll show his vote. Bank it.
Adamness | January 3, 2008, 9:22pm | #
Politico shows Giuliani pulling ahead of Paul. This puts Paul at 6th. :(How the heck did Thompson get 3rd?!
John-David | January 3, 2008, 9:22pm | #
I swear Rudy just went from like 1% to 10%. It's something I would compare to bullshit.crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:23pm | #
Cedar Rapids, IA's largest city, is in Linn Co. That's still awfully fishy. Is there a Mafia presence in CR?Math error? I can't see where Guiliani would have picked up 4000 votes.
Zero | January 3, 2008, 9:24pm | #
Reinmoose:Cedar Rapids is in Linn County. It is a large city for Iowa.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:25pm | #
Giuliani got 50% of the vote in Cedar Rapids? No way. No, frickin, way.Reinmoose | January 3, 2008, 9:26pm | #
it must be a mathematical error... 50+%?Also, MSNBC just called Iowa for Obama, and Chris Matthews is freaking out
Cedar Rapids Don | January 3, 2008, 9:26pm | #
Mr. Election Inspector, that's a nice cornfield you've got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it...Bingo | January 3, 2008, 9:26pm | #
How can Dems all gather in a corner and count heads and manage to report that faster than the Republican's straw poll? Is the GOP run by idiots?Zero | January 3, 2008, 9:27pm | #
st4rbux:Could be. It might also be the fumes from the ADM alcohol plant.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:27pm | #
Holy Shit! Chris Wallace of Fox News and Ed Rollins of the Huckabee campaign just had a major shouting match on live air.Taktix® | January 3, 2008, 9:27pm | #
Rudy is at 50% in Linn County, others are under 15%.Something's rotten in Denmark...
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:28pm | #
Huckabee's lead is down to 8%. Not that I care.The republicans are the kings of the rigged elections. Ron Paul might just suffer from the establishments choke-hold on our democratic process. Ghouliani jumping 10% all of the sudden seems fishy. Also, its funny how it took Ron Paul's friction with Fox News to finally awaken some Republicans to the disgusting bias from that network. I pray that Paul wins it all but then again the goons in D.C. will not allow the people to take back their liberty so easily.
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:29pm | #
Yes! I hope the Huckster likes second place!!! Us Mainstream Libertarians need jobs too!!! Blowjobs, that is!I said I'd only vote Democrat if Obama and Huckabee get the nominations, just to keep that "smirking hick" out of the White House. But I *really* don't want to have to do it!
Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:30pm | #
Fox has declared this thing too soon. The numbers are changing dramatically.Giuliani is now at 10.6%.
I don't believe that number. And I'm a Rudy guy. If he gets over 10% that's amazing, considering he didn't even hardly campaign in Iowa.
I think we've got another hour and a half of returns coming in before we know how this thing is going to turn out.
crimethink | January 3, 2008, 9:30pm | #
Cesar,I'm not going to say the 5-letter F-word, but it's pretty bizarre that Rudy would get 50% in one county and only 3% in the rest of the state. Cedar Rapids isn't THAT different from the rest of IA.
Taktix® | January 3, 2008, 9:30pm | #
CNN lady just said "hard fart" instead of hard fought."Huh huh huh huh huh....
If the figure its wrong, I'm going to chalk it up (in good faith) to mechanical and human error rather than vote stealing.
Sargeant Major | January 3, 2008, 9:31pm | #
Well, Romney is in trouble.Anonymoose | January 3, 2008, 9:31pm | #
@chico: I'm from Illinois. My experience says Democrats are the kings of rigged elections (not that it's relevant to the situation at hand)Eric Dondero | January 3, 2008, 9:31pm | #
There's a faux Eric Dondero poster here. It's probably Paul Frankel again, alias Disinter, alias "Pauli Cannoli."The silly comment two above is obviously not mine.
Again, here's my cell phone number to confirm any and all posts from me - 832-896-9505.
Fluffy | January 3, 2008, 9:31pm | #
I can easily believe that Rudy beat us in Linn County.I can possibly believe that Rudy beat Romney and Huckabee in Linn County.
I can't, and don't, believe that Rudy got 50% of the vote in Linn County. I just don't. I am assuming for the moment that it's a misreport and will be corrected later, but if it stands up it simply isn't credible as an honest number.
Gene Trosper | January 3, 2008, 9:32pm | #<