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Will Operation Live Free or Die deliver a Ron Paul miracle? Dave Weigel files a dispatch from New Hampshire.

Comments

Tagore Smith | January 4, 2008, 7:34am | #

Looks like McCain-Obama to me. I'm nominally Republican, but I can't decide on that one... If a Dem has to win I guess I'd favor Obama.

Tagre Smith | January 4, 2008, 7:45am | #

That said, I'll probably vote for Ron Paul, mainly because I know he won't win.

Edward | January 4, 2008, 8:06am | #

The Ron Paul miracle: Turning moronic enthusiasm into cash.

BTS | January 4, 2008, 8:46am | #

Hey Edward, in case everyone else didn't make it clear: FUCK YOU.

Though considering the insane degree of your trolling, you are probably some sort of weird e-masochist who craves negative attention, so you probably pleasure yourself to the thought of being beaten with a riding crop by a priest whenever anyone on here says mean things to you.

Whatever fucked you up, I hope it doesn't happen to anyone else.

kwais | January 4, 2008, 8:49am | #

I am thinking that it might end up being Fred Thompson vs Obama.

Tagore Smith | January 4, 2008, 9:23am | #

kwais: hmm- not likely now... I thought Thompson was smart to stay out at first- guess that proves how little I know. And how little his operatives know ;). But hey, I've already been wrong so who knows.. but that would make me right.. which would.. hmm, looks like McCain-Obama to me...

kwais | January 4, 2008, 9:25am | #

I mean I thought Fred was done, but he came in 3rd place.

Now I wonder how much damage Clinton is going to do to Obama before she loses? I am also betting that she is a sore loser at heart.

I will really be happy when McCain, and Guliani are out of the race. I really hope they give up before super Tuesday.

I am still optimistic about RP, but not as much so.

Might the nominee be Huckabee?
Well he is against the IRS which IMHO is the biggest threat to freedom in America. (By threat to freedom, I mean they have already effectively taken away our freedom)

Mr. X | January 4, 2008, 9:27am | #

I'd be satisfied to see Paul score another 2-1 crushing of 9/11 9/11 9/11.

kwais | January 4, 2008, 9:29am | #

McCain vs Obama? Really?

I don't know, 4th place and all, and some independents seem to like him, but he has a lot of negatives too.

I suppose it is possible.

Butler T. Reynolds | January 4, 2008, 9:35am | #

I saw Huckabee on MSNBC last night. Man, he's slick.

For a minute I actually started to believe that the guy talking was not just a big government Christianist. Then I remembered I was listening to Mike Huckabee.

Tagore Smith | January 4, 2008, 9:39am | #

I wouldn't take the Iowa caucus to heart- it's pretty contrived. OTOH, it is not good for Hillary to even have to fight for it...

Could just as easily be Romney, I guess, But I think McCain is going to do well in NH, and I think that as the election comes closer the Rs will focus on more serious candidates... McCain and Romney are the only two with much of a chance in the general election. It's not unusual for frivolous candidates to do well in Iowa, but they tend to fall away as the season goes on- Huckabee is about as frivolous as they come, IMHO.

Rattlesnake Jake | January 4, 2008, 9:40am | #

"looks like McCain-Obama to me..."

The new Pew poll shows McCain ahead nationally, 2 points above Guiliani. One good thing about McCain IMO is that he is ahead of Hillary by 5 points in a recent poll. I wonder, though, if his age will hurt him. It's the same thing with Ron Paul if he were to become a major contender. Ofcourse, Reagan's age didn't affect his electability.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 9:47am | #

Mike huckabee got 40% of the Republican women vote.

It is confirmed. Chicks dig the guitar.

Tagore Smithq | January 4, 2008, 9:47am | #

And yes, I will feel a bit of an ass as they swear President Huckabee in ;). Luckily I maintain more than one citizenship, so I'll north where the PM is.. Mulroney, right? "Hey, Brian, what does GST stand for.." "Hmm.. dunno" "Great sex tonight- your chances are about 7%". Hmm....

Edward | January 4, 2008, 9:51am | #

BTS

So your man came fifth. Big deal. He'll be first in the Rapture. Keep the faith.

Otter | January 4, 2008, 9:55am | #

Where's Dondero? He needs to swagger in and boast about how Rudy whipped Duncan Hunter in the caucuses.

kwais | January 4, 2008, 9:58am | #

The results I would like to see in NH are
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Huckabee

RP leading big and all the others trailing far behind Huckabee.

For the Dems, I would like to see a repeat performance, if possible with Clinton trailing much further.

J sub D | January 4, 2008, 10:01am | #

It is confirmed. Chicks dig the guitar.

Do you mean after all those lessons and all that practice, my sousaphone skills won't help me get laid?

Damn!

kwais | January 4, 2008, 10:04am | #

I think it is early to say McCain is a contender.

My biggest hope for NH is that it crushes the contender chances of McCain, Rudy, and Romney.

Ok, so my biggest hope is that it crushes Romney's hopes.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 10:05am | #

J sub D -
Anything named for JP Sousa should be quickly destroyed. That man has done nothing but make a large portion of my music-playing a bunch of oom-pas and rests..and rests..and rests..and rests.. and then FANFARE and CLICHE GLISSES!!..and oom-pas..and oom-pas..and rests.

Yes, I do have an irrationally dislike for that man.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 10:06am | #

*irrational

Tbone | January 4, 2008, 10:47am | #

J sub D, are you like Brad Paisley's tubist in "Online"?

Reinmoose, are you like Ernst Stavros Blofeld? "I so detest martial music". Or are you just a self-loathing low brass player? (Note my handle).

If Ron Paul doesn't finish 1 or 2 in NH, he will rapidly fade from the picture. And in any case, and similar to Huckabee, I think the MSM will paint him as too "kooky" for primetime, to have any shot at the nomination.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 11:31am | #

I'm not self-loathing, except when I stoop so low as to play something like Sousa. But yes, I am a fellow low-brasser who gravely detests being made to feel like a performing monkey.

"Play the slurry thing again!"

Seeing someone with a trombone seems to turn full-grown adults into 5-year-olds all over again.

tarran | January 4, 2008, 11:34am | #

I would be very surprised if Ron Paul places in the top 2 in NH.

Most people that vote have no real understanding of economics, history, or political theory. Rather they hold to a version of the 'whig' view of history; that is they believe that in general the government of today is superior to the government of yesterday.

Ron Paul's desire to roll back the clock on the Federal Govt to that of the pre-1913 version is very radical and will strike most people as abandoning the "progress" of the 20th century.

The end result, most people who want a change are going to look for a more incrementalist candidate. Looking at the Iowa map, several things stand out.

1) In several counties Ron Paul did extremely well garnering 20% of the vote (he even won Jefferson county, making him one of three candidates who came in first place in one of the caucuses). This tells me that he can convice enough people to support him that he can wield power within the Republican party

2) Where Ron Paul did poorly, Fred Thomson seemed to do well and vice versa. Fred Thomson has tried to pass himself off as the maverick that Ron Paul is, and talks a very similar game about 'limited government'. This again implies that, at least in Iowa, there were many people who were receptive to a less radical variant of Ron Paul's ideas.

In the end, Paul will probably not win any seriously contested primaries. Nor will he fade away, his ideas have sufficient traction that he will be around for a while. It is likely that he will go into the convention with enough delegates that he can command significant attention and thus influence the election.

But we will be getting a big-government, pro-war president in 2009, make no mistake.

Egosumabbas | January 4, 2008, 11:42am | #

@ Reinmoose:

Anything named for JP Sousa should be quickly destroyed. That man has done nothing but make a large portion of my music-playing a bunch of oom-pas and rests..and rests..and rests..and rests.. and then FANFARE and CLICHE GLISSES!!..and oom-pas..and oom-pas..and rests.

Yes, I do have an irrationally dislike for that man.


There is a Sousa museum in Champaign-Urbana on the UIUC campus. Some say it contains the largest archive of his music too. Not that I'm giving you any ideas of course.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 11:48am | #

I had a friend who went to Champaign-Urbana and she wisely never informed me of this.

Irony:
In graduating high school, I received an award in his name.

Tbone | January 4, 2008, 1:18pm | #

Reinmoose,

I tire of JPS marches, but don't have a visceral attitude towards them. As a fellow JPS award winner (many eons ago), you should take pride in the achievement - it takes effort to be a "band geek extraordinaire"

For your further distaste,

http://www.library.uiuc.edu/sousa/

[/cruelty]

Tbone | January 4, 2008, 1:22pm | #

Besides, in addition to the oom pah pahs, we've got that Peanuts teacher speak thing; what's not to like?

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 1:31pm | #

you should take pride in the achievement - it takes effort to be a "band geek extraordinaire"
uhh, I guess it took some effort. I always assumed that being "band geek extraordinaire" was just something that came naturally.

I have this stupid little statuette somewhere of a coin with JPS's face on it. I think there was a pin too.
Everyone else who got lower-awards got some amount of money with them.
Curses!

Besides, in addition to the oom pah pahs, we've got that Peanuts teacher speak thing; what's not to like?

Ooo, don't get me started. I don't play so much in groups anymore (I don't have a group to play with, at present), but being a section leader is not something I miss.
Playing Big Band music was the saving grace of my whole playing experience. I quit when I was in 5th grade just out of how frustrating the whole thing was. I nearly quit again after high school.

Tbone | January 4, 2008, 1:54pm | #

I took it all the way to principal chair, Music Performance major for two years until I realized I wasn't good/dedicated enough to knock off Friedman at CSO and might have to fall back on TEACHING (the horror).

My playing days are over but I'm raising two proficient band geeks.

Reinmoose | January 4, 2008, 1:56pm | #

My playing days are over but I'm raising two proficient band geeks.

Ahh, the cycle continues

BTS | January 4, 2008, 10:24pm | #

Hey Edward, guess what! I'm an athiest! So fuck you again.

Damn I need to stop feeding the troll.