New at Reason: Ron Bailey, Lynne Kiesling, and Fred L. Smith Debate Global Warming

In a feature from our July issue, Science Correspondent Ronald Bailey, Northwestern University senior economics lecturer Lynne Kiesling, and Competitive Enterprise Institute President Fred L. Smith debate what—if anything—should be done about global warming.

Read the whole thing here.

Click here to watch Lynne Kiesling, Ronald Bailey and Fred L. Smith debate climate change at the at the Reason in DC conference.

Comments

Green Toast | June 9, 2008, 12:20pm | #

Nuclear. "Green"s hate it, along with any source of technology or reasoned discourse (Ignore that ANWR behind the curtain and that oil China's tapping near Florida. We're screaming about peak oil here, man!).

Also: space mirrors -- because we need all the sun we can get.

Stephen Smith | June 9, 2008, 12:25pm | #

I was heartened to see that liberalization was a possible solution to the problem, but disappointed that you guys missed the biggest illiberal cause of global warming: transportation and land use controls. The US decided in the beginning of the 20th century that it was giong to forsake the private mass transit operators, and killed them by overregulation, anti-trust laws, and (ironically) giving them monopolies over certain areas which ensured that they didn't receive the competition necessary for innovation. Eventually, the system collapsed and the US essentially nationalized the human transportation sector by collecting gas taxes and building roads from here to Timbuktu. While the gas tax approximately covers the costs of all these roads and their maintenance (from big highways to local roads), it does not cover their opportunity costs – a vital thing in the business world – and therefore cannot be assumed that they would exist the way they do if their allocation and upkeep were left up to the private sector. (As a though experiment, imagine if a sidestreet in NYC were put up for auction. Likely it would be bought in a second and skyscrapers would by build on every inch of it. Extend this to one of NYC's main boulevards, and it's not difficult to imagine most being taken up by skyscrapers, with a small right-of-way for privately-owned mass transit.) These roads engender the sort of sprawl and low-density development that you see across America today.

Furthermore, land use restrictions like mandatory low-density development and mandatory minimums on parking skew the market towards low-density development. In Jonathan Levine's Zoned Out, he finds that a whopping 78% of developers across the US believe that regulation is the biggest impediment to higher-density development, with a paltry 26% who think that lack of market interest is the biggest roadblock (no pun intended).

So, what's wrong with density lower than the market would otherwise provide? Density is a huge benefit to the environment. Cities are more environmentally-friendly than suburbs, because people have to move around less within them. High-density buildings are good because they share walls, lowering heating and cooling costs, as well as saving in materials. They take up less space on the ground which returns more of the land to the wild, where nature can decide the best way to suck up the carbon from the atmosphere. However, more than half of all Americans live in the suburbs, with all the environmental degradation that comes with living somewhere where you need to drive 10 minutes to get anywhere.

The markets America needs to liberalize to deal with global warming are transportation and land use, despite the fact that many see those as only tangentially related to the problem of global warming. It's disappointing that a conference of libertarians discussing this issue doesn't even mention it.

Frederick | June 9, 2008, 12:46pm | #

These roads engender the sort of sprawl and low-density development that you see across America today.

The American way of life is non-negotiable, we need to drive and we need to drive big SUVs. There is no global warming, the increase in temp was < 1 degree for the last 100 years, that means it doesn't exist. Peek oil is a myth, there is no other source of energy on earth and earth has an infinite amount of the oils.

Ignore that ANWR behind the curtain and that oil China's tapping near Florida. We're screaming about peak oil here, man!

True, there is enougth oil there for us to use it forever.

Frederick | June 9, 2008, 12:48pm | #

Economic theory predicts that the oil supply is infinite because as it becomes scarce the price goes up meaning we will drill in new places. We have got to drill anywhere and everywhere to get more cheep oil to keep the SUVs running.

Elemenope | June 9, 2008, 12:51pm | #

I don't understand. Are the three of them polar bears? On a melting iceberg? I didn't know bears could type. Maybe it was being transcribed. But I didn't see a stenographer. Maybe they ate her.

If this is true, I can see their situation well-qualifies them to comment on this debacle.

Chris Potter | June 9, 2008, 12:54pm | #

Re: the picture, similar pictures could have been taken every spring since the invention of the camera. Icebergs melting is not an unprecedented event.

And IIRC polar bears can swim.

M' | June 9, 2008, 1:06pm | #

And IIRC polar bears can swim.

What's more troublesome is that they can climb way up there on ice. #1 Threat: Bears

fyodor | June 9, 2008, 1:08pm | #

The problem with Smith's "solutions" is twofold.

One is that his proposals are merely things we should do anyway, regardless of global warming problems.

Two is that none of them directly address the central issue, which can be basically seen as a tragedy of the commons, i.e. no one individually has the incentive to curb the use of things that inevitably affect us all. There may be some indirect incentives to voluntarily reduce greenhouse emissions, such as business PR and consumer choice among those willing to sacrifice some material gain in order to feel virtuous, but whether these factors can adequately compete with material gain worldwide is dubious.

Smith's best argument is that government mechanisms may just make things worse just because of their inherent inefficiencies. Right now, there's pretty much no telling for sure! But if we can link a carbon tax to a reduction of other taxes, I think the chances are decent of doing more good than harm.

Terry | June 9, 2008, 1:10pm | #

"if anything—should be done about global warming."
Objection; This assumes fact not in evidence.
Fact: No increase in temperature since 1998.
Fact: Greenland used to be green, not a shit of ice.
Where is proof of global warming?
Where is proof that global warming is a danger to human civilization?

Bailey are you still a member of the ACLU?

Terry | June 9, 2008, 1:13pm | #

"not a shit of ice."
Sorry, I meant "not a sheet of ice."
Apologize if any children were tramutized by reading my post.

D.A. Ridgely | June 9, 2008, 1:16pm | #

Among the (many) unanswered questions was Smith's asking whether global warming policy is worse than global warming. Discussion of even Smith's idiotic 20 degrees crisis point versus .07 degrees change is pointless if you don't monetize the effect. So, also, are discussions of proposed abatements or alternatives.

In any case, if carbon taxes are intended merely to discourage carbon use until more environmentally benign but economically viable alternatives arise, I see two purely political problems.

First, there is, as far as I know, absolutely zero reason to believe that governments will impose carbon taxes but reduce other tax burdens. Who believes that will happen?

Second, given the howls from Americans now at $4 a gallon gasoline, which Smith significantly compares to current European prices, what is the likelihood that a tax high enough to genuinely dissuade usage is politically viable?

Warren | June 9, 2008, 1:17pm | #

Fact: Greenland used to be green, not a shit of ice.

BZZZZZZZZZZ Sorry Wrong. Core samples from Greenland's ice sheet date back over 100,000 years.

Thank you for playing, Johnny has some nice parting gifts for you.

Warren | June 9, 2008, 1:18pm | #

ACK stupid tag

Enviro the Logician | June 9, 2008, 1:21pm | #

Where is proof of global warming?
Where is proof that global warming is a danger to human civilization?

The temperature in NYC today is going to be 94. Six months ago it was in the 20s. At this rate in a year the Hudson River will be near boiling.

fyodor | June 9, 2008, 1:31pm | #

First, there is, as far as I know, absolutely zero reason to believe that governments will impose carbon taxes but reduce other tax burdens. Who believes that will happen?

Well of course it wouldn't happen on its own or without pressure on governments to do so. But our entire discussion presumes we as citizens may have some influence. If a significant political faction takes the position that it's open to carbon taxes but only if accompanied by lowered other taxes, then yeah, it's potentially realistic. If we oppose carbon taxes under any circumstance, we risk being marginalized and having less influence.

Apaulogist | June 9, 2008, 1:36pm | #

so let me get this strait:

1.There may be global warming, we're not sure.
2.If there is global warming, it might be cause by humans, but we're not sure.
3.Global warming might cause more harm than good, but we're not sure.
4. IF GW causes harm, we might be able to slow or stop it, but we're not sure
5. Slowing or reducing GW may cost more than the damage it would cause, but we're not sure.

Am I up to speed?

My contribution: The people who say global warming is a looming threat also say that peak oil is imminent. If oil causes GW, won't thes two problems cancle each other out without huge growth in government and corresponding loss of wealth and freedom?

ed | June 9, 2008, 1:49pm | #

The answer is so simple: One world government. Bicycles. Rice paddies. Secret police to keep the peace. And me as your Dear Leader. Think about it. Loyalty will be rewarded.

brotherben | June 9, 2008, 1:51pm | #

Will using white bears in the photo garner more sympathy for the plight of all God's creatures in our race to prevent Mother Earth from becoming a lava planet?

Sam Grove | June 9, 2008, 1:56pm | #

BZZZZZZZZZZ Sorry Wrong. Core samples from Greenland's ice sheet date back over 100,000 years.

Yes, Greenland has had an ice sheet for a loooong time. But the climate has been warm enough at times in the past to support colonies in it southern coastal regions.

Josh | June 9, 2008, 1:57pm | #

Turns out that probably due to warmth and CO2, the earth's inventory of biomass has increased 6.2% over the past couple of decades.

Now just imagine that it had gone the other way -- decreased by the same amount -- the greenies would be screaming their heads off.

So why is it again that that's the direction that they're trying to take us?

Watch those sunspots. Government carbon meddling may well turn out to be right up there with Fed monetary policy of 1929 -- but the next Great Contraction may be the biosphere.

Episiarch | June 9, 2008, 2:05pm | #

Is it just my eyes or does the bigger bear have a picnic basket?

kinnath | June 9, 2008, 2:07pm | #

Oil at $135 a barrel has done more to reduce AGW that all actions taken by all governments to date.

Gilbert Martin | June 9, 2008, 2:08pm | #

Nope.

Only the bears in Jellystone park have picnic baskets.

Naga Sadow | June 9, 2008, 2:11pm | #

I don't know ed. This sounds familiar. Throw in some arbitrary power over . . . the Czech Republic, I guess, and I'll pledge my support.

Episiarch | June 9, 2008, 2:16pm | #

Only the bears in Jellystone park have picnic baskets.

That is Jellystone, Boo Boo! It's been flooded by the melting polar ice caps!

MikeB | June 9, 2008, 2:24pm | #

All the government talk about GW worries me far more than GW itself. This will be yet another massive governmental grap for power.

I am surprised that Reason and many posters here are warming (sorry for the pun) towards it. Both cap & trade and carbon taxes need to be opposed strongly. The earth has gone through much much greater climate changes in the past and it is foolish to believe in climate stability.

The current climate models are so inaccurate, they have to be adjusted every year to accurately predict the present. Even the present temp isn't accurate as there are significant modifications to the raw weather station data to adjust for land use changes in the area.

In my opinion, GW anlong with universal health care are scams to further allow the government to micro-manage our lives. I am so fed up, I have decided to vote straight L from now on.

Elemenope | June 9, 2008, 2:25pm | #

Is it just my eyes or does the bigger bear have a picnic basket?

Yeah. That's the stenographer, there, in the picnic basket.

Saturday Morning Pedant | June 9, 2008, 2:28pm | #

It's Pic-a-nic baskets, you miscreants!

Episiarch | June 9, 2008, 2:45pm | #

It's Pic-a-nic baskets, you miscreants!

You aren't smarter than the average pedant.

Michael A. Clem | June 9, 2008, 2:56pm | #

"The" issue of global warming is actually a series of issues. Is global warming occurring? If so, how much is actually being caused by man and not natural causes? How much can man actually do to mitigate it? Do we really NEED to mitigate it--how much of a problem would GW actually cause, anyway? In short, it's not enough to prove that GW is occurring. Much, much more needs to be proved to show that GW isn't just the latest fear-crazed hysteria of doom-and-gloomers and power-hungry politicians.

Larry N. Martin | June 9, 2008, 3:04pm | #

But our entire discussion presumes we as citizens may have some influence...If we oppose carbon taxes under any circumstance, we risk being marginalized and having less influence.

The game is rigged--you only have influence by granting the legitimacy of the organization who set up the rules, and by compromising your beliefs. It's like a person in the 1840's deciding that the best way to "have influence" on the slavery issue is to come up with some slightly less onerous way of managing slaves, instead of being an abolitionist. If a significant political faction takes a position, ANY position, then you will have influence.

Paulidan | June 9, 2008, 3:17pm | #

Or you could reach down your pants, find your long lost testicles, and tell the world that global warming is a creepy millenarian scam that tries to extract money from people by telling them their killing themselves with the fruits of their prosperity.

Or you could be a Bailey surrender monkey, idk...

fyodor | June 9, 2008, 3:22pm | #

Larry N. Martin,

If one does not believe AGW is occurring or that it can result in serious violations of individuals' rights to self or property or that those violations are anybody's business, then you would be correct that advocating coercive means to restrict greenhouse emissions would be a compromise of libertarian core beliefs. But if one does believe those things, then while textbook libertarianism does not account for such a position, it is consistent with the same principles that criminalize assault and vandalism, and it's those principles that are most important to my own beliefs.

Antiglobalist | June 9, 2008, 3:36pm | #

Global warming is the symptom, overpopulation is the problem. Simple math folks.

Douglas Fletcher | June 9, 2008, 3:40pm | #

"And IIRC polar bears can swim."

If I recall correctly they've been known to swim as much as 50 miles in search of delectable seal morsels.

I think we should have something like the running of the bulls at Pamplona, only make it with polar bears chasing environmentalists. Maybe they'd have a more reasonable view of the long-term survival chances of those cute white bears.

Neil | June 9, 2008, 3:41pm | #

Global warming is the symptom, overpopulation is the problem.

And nuclear winter is the solution.

Michael A. Clem | June 9, 2008, 3:49pm | #

But if one does believe those things, then while textbook libertarianism does not account for such a position, it is consistent with the same principles that criminalize assault and vandalism, and it's those principles that are most important to my own beliefs.

Ah! Now we're getting somewhere. So, to engage in coercive actions, it's only necessary to *believe* that harm is being done? Or is it necessary to prove that harm is being done, and the cause of that harm? If the latter is possible, then it doesn't matter if there are no property rights in the atmosphere--what matters is that rights violations are occurring, and a human cause can be shown for those violations. If the police won't act on it, you take the violators to court. Neither carbon taxes nor Cap & Trade are necessary or necessarily helpful because they don't address individual rights.

Francisco Torres | June 9, 2008, 3:53pm | #

Global warming is the symptom, overpopulation is the problem. Simple math folks.

Are you one of the "overs", or one of the "unders"? Just to know who to off first, mind you.

Apaulogist | June 9, 2008, 4:04pm | #

Mike Clem wrote:

"Ah! Now we're getting somewhere. So, to engage in coercive actions, it's only necessary to *believe* that harm is being done? Or is it necessary to prove that harm is being done, and the cause of that harm? If the latter is possible, then it doesn't matter if there are no property rights in the atmosphere--what matters is that rights violations are occurring, and a human cause can be shown for those violations. If the police won't act on it, you take the violators to court. Neither carbon taxes nor Cap & Trade are necessary or necessarily helpful because they don't address individual rights. "


DING DING DING! We have a winner! Take a bow, Mike. You nailed it.

fyodor | June 9, 2008, 4:48pm | #

Michael A. Clem,

Well obviously one's beliefs should be based on evidence. My understanding is that the evidence supports AGL.

When the vast majority of people on Earth are having their rights violated (to varying degrees) by things the vast majority of people on Earth are doing (to varying degrees), it's rather hard for anyone to take anyone else to court, to put it mildly.

Russ R | June 9, 2008, 5:22pm | #

My proposal:

Carbon tax.

Set by each country to its revenue-maximizing level, ensuring competition between governments, and penalizing those who set the carbon tax rate too high.

Levied at source for simplicity, directly on producers of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas), and emitters of other greenhouse gases as a price per tonne of CO2 equivalent.

The higher energy and product prices get passed along to consumers who derive benefits from the fossil fuels and derivative products, and can voluntarily adjust consumption to a more optimal level.

Critical: The tax proceeds get used to reduce income taxes (since it's better to tax "pollution" rather than to tax productivity).

Without that last paragraph, I'd be entirely opposed to a carbon tax.

Apaulogist | June 9, 2008, 5:29pm | #

"...it's rather hard for anyone to take anyone else to court, to put it mildly."-fyodor

I will go out on a limb and say that no condition, not even the one you specified, could possibly make that statement true.

DannyK | June 9, 2008, 6:05pm | #

I feel sorry for Fred. He takes his basket of "Planet Gore" arguments to market and gets totally schooled!

Nice one, Ron. My faith in you as a reluctant rationalist is restored.

cbmclean | June 9, 2008, 6:11pm | #

It would have to warm by over 20 degrees C to worry Smith. That's pretty scary.

Jose | June 9, 2008, 7:06pm | #

I can't believe they used that picture.

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s1887890.htm

Chad | June 9, 2008, 7:53pm | #

Smith is one sick mutha. To save a few pennies per gallon, he is literally willing to fry the planet, devastate every ecosystem on earth, and put the homes of 1/3 of the people on earth under water...and that's the best case. There is no assurance that our atmospheric composition would at all stay breathable under 20C warming. I hope he would be the first to choke.

I quit reading anything he said after that point.

Chad | June 9, 2008, 7:57pm | #

MikeB | June 9, 2008, 2:24pm | #

The earth has gone through much much greater climate changes in the past and it is foolish to believe in climate stability.

Yes, and these times of great climate change resulted in mass extinctions, with much of the life and species on earth obliterated. I think I'll take the carbon tax instead, thank you very much.

MikeB | June 9, 2008, 8:43pm | #

Chad,

Not sure how your reasoning follows.

Major changes in the past have occured without man's input and now we are facing a tiny climatic blip. Sure lets destroy our prosperity because it must be man's fault. This will make the devestation caused by Rachel Carson's crap look like childs play.

The temperature numbers are bad.

The models are faulty

There is no evidence of man's impact.

There is no evidence that higher temps are bad (ie extictions were caused by ice ages)

Right now our congress is passing legislation to destroy our way of life based on GW hysteria. Starvation has already increased around the world due to the ethanol scam. I really don't want my standard of living to be destroyed by the nuts that buy in to this garbage.

Terry | June 9, 2008, 8:47pm | #

Chad your an idiot.
If most "climate change" is due to the sun or an astroid striking the earth. Can't do anything about the first, and even now, very little about the second.

BTW: If you want to pay more taxes, I would be happy to take them from you and I promise to use it greenly.
For example, instead of renting a car for Vegas I would go Greyhound.
Thanks.

Green Toast | June 10, 2008, 12:35am | #

Frederick,

True, there is enougth (sic) oil there for us to use it forever.

Yes, I'm glad you noticed. See how oil reserves have always grown? From thousands of barrels before the beginning of the 20th century, millions a few decades later, to trillions today. That's technology. When it becomes economical, Canada's tar sand stock will probably double what's available. And that's ignoring the fact that ever-abundant cellulose is what all this stuff used to be and can be transformed into it again, if we figure out how to do it economically (straight to methonal via sour mash isn't all that difficult, after all).

Apaulogist | June 10, 2008, 2:12am | #

Nn related news, Aspen will be open for skiing next week.

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=93380&catid=188

Hugo Pottisch | June 10, 2008, 6:24am | #

Great discussion.

Green initiative have historically struggled to embrace a free market approach. It is a fair point to note that cap and trade is great in theory and bad in practice. Lobbying in the US is as strong as in the EU and cap and trade would turn into something like the CAP.

Libertarians have historically suffered from a similar predicament. They have failed to embrace ecological solution in favor of technological ones. GMO mono-culture rather than say perma-culture. It is the same "ideological" mistake that the Greens fall into. "Doing something", intervening sounds more "man-like" and seems more intuitive to our species than trusting the market or nature without intervention.

But I understand the social challenge that Ron has touched upon. His social territory is probably conservative or libertarian. It is those folks who in theory support the "free" and "limited intervention" but for some reason have been most skeptical of environmental destruction and least knowledgeable of ecological laws and nature in general. No - the farmers do not know more about nature and animals than Thoreau. No - the folks who brought us mono-culture and factory farming and recently GMO do not know more about nature and ecology than naturalists. Libertarians and conservatives usually apply the right policies but sometimes pick the wrong targets and battles.

Similarly - the Greens are surrounded by ideological and economical lefties and tend to support the right ecological solutions with the wrong statist policies.

I hope that we pick the best of both worlds soon and not the other way around.

Chad | June 10, 2008, 6:53am | #

The temperature numbers are bad.

The models are faulty

There is no evidence of man's impact.

There is no evidence that higher temps are bad (ie extictions were caused by ice ages)

Yes, and the earth is flat, smoking doesn't cause cancer, and we don't need to worry about global warming anyway, because Jesus will save us. The second coming is nigh!

There is no point in discussing with you further. If God himself came down and told you that you were wrong, you would stick with your position all the way to the seventh level of hell. Your unwillingness to admit you are wrong in spite of both common sense and overwhelming evidence is amazing.

Chad | June 10, 2008, 6:57am | #

Terry | June 9, 2008, 8:47pm | #

Chad your an idiot.
If most "climate change" is due to the sun

It isn't. This question has been studied to death. The sun has had negligible impact on current climate changes.

or an astroid striking the earth.

Most major extinctions and climate events (including the current one) have nothing to do with asteroids.

BTW: If you want to pay more taxes, I would be happy to take them from you and I promise to use it greenly.

There are already people out there who do a much better job and have independant auditors. I'll just use them, but thanks for the offer.

Nemo31 | June 10, 2008, 9:05am | #

The Polar Bear pictures were taken by an Australian tourist on vacation in Alaska. The month the pictures were taken was August. They were actual hitching a ride farther off shore to avoid seal hunting quotas put in place by US gov't. they are now being distressed by the Law of the Seas Treaty. They are concerned they may have to give up new born cubs on a 1 to 1 basis to the UN.

fyodor | June 10, 2008, 11:25am | #

"...it's rather hard for anyone to take anyone else to court, to put it mildly."-fyodor

I will go out on a limb and say that no condition, not even the one you specified, could possibly make that statement true.

Uh.....your point being, what? That you could always find a way to take someone to court? Sheesh, okay, I guess I missed one word. It would be rather hard to legitimately take someone to court! Better now?

fyodor | June 10, 2008, 11:31am | #

Nn related news, Aspen will be open for skiing next week.

Heh, yeah it's been a cool spring here in Colorado after a pretty good snow season. The latter is more a function of moisture than temperature and the former, well, y'know, back when I followed Ron B. into AGL denial I gave my lefties royal shit for their "anecdotal evidence." Don't work no better in the opposite direction, and just as dumb.

Craig | June 10, 2008, 2:27pm | #

What global warming?

When there's no problem, the right response is to do nothing, especially when doing something costs a lot of money and provides little if any benefit.

Didn't the Copenhagen conference just conclude that spending money to fight global warming would be woefully inefficient, even if you assume the problem exists?

Green Toast | June 10, 2008, 3:09pm | #

What global warming?

Exactly. The ice caps are going threatening our liberal democracies, and the polar bears are just the first wave. Their numbers are increasing. Soon we will be overrun. The only solution is to club their ice and melt their seals.

If you're not burning baby seals, you're helping the furry, white menace threatening goddess gaia!

Chad | June 10, 2008, 5:36pm | #

Craig | June 10, 2008, 2:27pm | #

Didn't the Copenhagen conference just conclude that spending money to fight global warming would be woefully inefficient, even if you assume the problem exists?

Copenhagen found that fighting global warming passed a cost-benefit analysis in every scenario but one, and every scenario they looked at had the odds stacked against it passing (steep discount rates that negated most of the benefits, little or no accounting for species loss and side benefits).

joe | June 10, 2008, 6:28pm | #

Denying the existence of global warming in the face of the evidence that has been compiled to date is a good way for right-libertarians to win back the guffaw-inducing obscurity that Ron Paul squandered with his intelligent and serious paleo-con criticism of the Iraq War.

No, I don't want to argue and convince you. I want you to stay right where you are, keep yammering, and fade back into the comic relief role you rightfully play in our political culture.

joe's toe | June 11, 2008, 2:35am | #

evidence is the plural of anecdote